Saturday, February 14, 2015

mildest of the year... (pm.14.feb.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
High temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
Precipitation: none

You can see from the high temp (above) that the thermometer got about as close to 60F as it possibly could today -- even at my location in the very upper part of McLeod Ganj.  It was already very mild at sunrise, and with pretty much unlimited sunshine all day, our anticipated warmer air mass was able to deliver beautifully.  This evening just after sunset it is mostly clear... though a bit hazy.

It's been a big relief to see the cloud development held at bay the last couple of days, allowing us to reap the full potential of the spring-like air mass pushing in from the south-southwest.  This period of above-normal temperatures will continue tomorrow -- and it seems likely that we'll warm up even another degree or two.  There could be an increase in cloudiness by the latter part of the day, but the bigger changes will hold off a little while longer.

There's still a shift in the upper-level pattern expected as the new week unfolds, as the flow shifts back to the west-southwest, and several disturbances swing through northern India.  There will also be an increase in available moisture as the week goes on, which will bring us a good chance of at least a few rounds of showers and possible thundershowers between Monday and Saturday.  I'm kinda frustrated with the continuing fluctuations among the computer model solutions -- many of which keep the most significant precipitation just to our north and northwest.  It's still hard for me to get a feel for what this system is going to look like.  In general, we just need to be prepared for a turn to much more unsettled/unstable conditions as we approach the Tibetan New Year...

Check tabs above for forecast and other info.