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Tuesday, February 17, 2015

busy weather pattern... (am.17.feb.15)>

Our sky is cloudy early this morning, and there are still a few showers around the area.  We had a respectable amount of rain overnight -- I'm showing 0.49" (1.2cm) since 8:00pm last evening, which brings our total since very early yesterday morning up to 0.66" (1.7cm).  Temperatures are cooler than we've seen in the last several days, but really not all that cold for the middle of February -- my overnight low has been 44.2F (6.8C).

If you regularly follow along on this blog, you've certainly picked up the theme recently -- we've got a long-term unstable/disturbed weather pattern to deal with, and that's going to keep us in and out of periods of rain showers for at least the next week or so.  There are numerous upper-level disturbances embedded in a fast moving flow aloft, while plenty of moisture is available in the mid- and lower levels for those disturbances to tap.  Already we've seen a few rounds of rain showers since very early Monday morning, and there will be more to come.  The challenge remains in nailing down the timing on each individual disturbance as it tracks across northern India -- but I've been getting headaches trying to do that.  Computer models are all coming up with different solutions, so it's not realistic to be able to fine tune this kind of scenario.

Broadly speaking, it still looks like late tonight through Wednesday evening, and then Thursday (Losar) late afternoon through Friday might be the times when we could pick up the heaviest rainfall -- with another even more ominous-looking period coming between Sunday night and Tuesday of next week.  More than enough action to keep us weather enthusiasts busy...

Forecast details and other info can be found on tabs at the top of the page.