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Monday, February 4, 2013

much more to come... (pm.04.feb.13)>

Update @ 3:07am... Wide awake, thanks to the howling winds.  There hasn't been much more rain since last evening, but that should be changing shortly, as a new batch of moisture surges in.  It's mild -- 48.5F (9.2C).

Update @7:49pm... A seriously disturbed atmosphere tonight, with thundershowers scattered along the leading slopes of the Dhauladhars again during the past hour.  I arrived home as small hail was falling here in the upper part of town.  My rain gauge now shows a total of 2.18" (5.5cm) since it all started late last night.  Current temp: 45.1F (7.3C).

Monday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 39.4F (4.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 48.4F (9.1C)
24 hour Rainfall: 2.01" (5.1cm) -- as of 4:30pm

It is cloudy, with some scattered mainly light rain showers around the area just after sunset this evening.  The rainfall we've received since about 10:00pm last night has been even heavier than predictions for this early in the process of our storm's development -- and we've had occasionally gusty winds and even some thunder thrown in to the mix late this afternoon.

The first phase of this intense winter storm is passing now, but there will be another couple of phases on the way later tonight through Wednesday that promise to bring us much more rain and perhaps even some snow here in McLeod Ganj before it's all over.  The storm's 'driver', an intense upper-level circulation, continues to spin over southern Pakistan, and will be slowly and gradually lifting northeastward during the next 48-60 hours or so.  Ahead of it, an amazing amount of moisture is being drawn northward and then wrung out in the form of heavy precipitation all along the Himalayan ranges from northern Pakistan into northern India.  This situation is not going to ease up until our flow shifts back to the west-northwest on Thursday.

An additional 10-12cm (4-5") of liquid-equivalent precip is likely -- with the vast majority of that expected between very late tonight and late Tuesday night.  Simultaneously, temperature profiles provided by computer model projections are showing a more and more favorable scenario for rain changing to sleet and snow all the way down to 1500m/4900ft or so starting tomorrow (Tues) evening.  Of course we'll have to keep a close eye on the latest data and hour-by-hour developments in preparation for a potentially snowy scene here in McLeod proper.

Rapid improvement is expected on Thursday into Friday... which we will definitely be ready for after this long cold and wet stretch.

cloudy with more rain developing.  some thunder?
low: 6C (42F)

periods of moderate to occasionally heavy rain.  otherwise cloudy with gusty winds at times.  some thunder possible?
high: 9C (48F)

periods of rain, possibly becoming mixed with or changing to sleet and/or snow.
low: 2C (35F)

 cloudy and cold, with occasional rain and/or sleet and snow.
 high: 7C (44F)

some light showers or rain, sleet, or snow in the morning, otherwise some sunshine appearing.  still cold.
morning low: 2C (35F)
daytime high: 7C (45F)

partly cloudy.  a bit milder.
morning low: 4C (39F)
daytime high: 10C (50F)

 sunny to partly cloudy.  milder, but still unseasonably chilly.
morning low: 6C (42F)
daytime high: 11C (52F)