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Wednesday, February 13, 2013

quiet, for now... (am.13.feb.13)>

We've got some patches of high clouds around the area this morning, and I've recorded an overnight low temp of 46.2F (7.9C).  Early morning temperatures the last several days have been running a bit above normal for this time of year.

A more active weather pattern will be evolving during the coming 48 hours or so, leading to a wet, cold and potentially white weekend.  Weak upper-level disturbances will continue to affect us through Thursday, bringing occasional high cloudiness, and perhaps a random/isolated rain or snow shower higher up in the mountains.  Temperatures will stay on the mild side, and could brush 60F (15.5C) for the first time since early December.

Some dramatic changes are on the way starting on Friday, however.  A storm system which several days ago looked like it would be a minor event, is now projected to be much more than that.  A rapidly deepening trough of low pressure will be forming over Afghanistan and Pakistan by late Thursday, and will strengthen further as it lifts east-northeastward across northern India over the weekend.  Although this system probably won't tap into as much moisture as last week's storm, it is going to be able to manufacture colder air than that one did -- and that puts us in a precarious position for a snow event here in McLeod Ganj.  There is plenty of time to watch how things develop, but be aware of a return to wet and colder weather by late Friday.

Check back here for a full forecast update this evening...