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Friday, February 22, 2013

still developing... (am.22.feb.13)>

*Update @ 4:37pm... It's now totally cloudy with some fog here in the upper part of town.  Lots of thunder and lightning as well, although I've only had light rain showers so far.  The temp here has quickly dropped to the new low of the day -- 44.1F (6.7C), with humidity just now rising above 90%.

*Update @ 3:19pm... Scattered thundershowers are popping up.  I've seen very little rain so far, but the thunder has been rumbling since just before 3pm.  There could be some small hail if these thundershowers gain any momentum late this afternoon and evening.

*Update @ 12:49pm... We've had some sunny breaks in the midst of the clouds up to now, with things still looking pretty disorganized from the satellite perspective.  The main upper-level circulation is just now becoming evident over eastern Afghanistan, and that will lead to a maturing storm system during the coming 12-18 hours or so.  This morning's computer model projections are narrowing in on the 3-4cm (1.2-1.6") range for rainfall totals by very late Saturday night or early Sunday morning.  But we're certainly not getting off to a very fast start.

Other than gusty winds and just a few very light rain showers, there has been nothing very noteworthy about our developing storm system so far.  I've only had a trace of rainfall up to now, the overnight low was 44.8F (7.1C), and early morning humidity stands at 47%.  Skies are partly to mostly cloudy at 8am.

The preliminary wave of energy which moved into northern India last evening is now lifting northeastward away from us, as we await the development of the main circulation center of our weekend storm system.  Upper-level energy is diving southeast from central Asia this morning, and will cause that low-pressure "spin" to form along the Afghanistan/Pakistan border by this evening.  More moisture will be drawn northward ahead of it, bringing us an increasing likelihood of significant rainfall later today through late Saturday night, with a few showers possibly lingering into Sunday as well.

As I've been mentioning, there isn't a very impressive shot of colder air expected to accompany this system, so snowfall should remain quite high up the mountain -- mainly above 2400m/7900ft or so.

I'll post updates at the top of this page, as necessary.