Friday, January 17, 2014

precariously positioned... (pm.17.jan.14)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 41.4F (5.2C)
High temp: 47.3F (8.5C)
Precipitation: none

There is only the faintest glimmer of orange in the western sky at sunset this evening, otherwise we are totally socked in with clouds and haze.  We only had minor peeks of sun today, as clouds thickened up gradually as the day wore on.  That kept temperatures well below the 50F (10C) mark for the first time since Sunday -- and the cold was definitely noticeable.  Otherwise the wind has been light, humidity mainly in the 50-70% range, with no precipitation.

It definitely has the look and feel of pre- winter storm conditions out there, and the weather charts are very interesting to match.  A fairly vigorous upper-level low pressure system is centered right along the Pakistan/northwest Rajasthan border at the moment, and will move slowly to eastern Himachal Pradesh (around Kinnaur) by this time tomorrow evening.  Moisture surging northward ahead of this upper-level circulation is feeding some rapid shower and thundershower development across Uttar Pradesh, which indicates that this system is coming into maturity.

Fresh data via a couple of the computer models is available every six hours -- and the latest run is indicating a bit more of a northwest track for this storm system during the next 24 hours.  If this happens, it's going to put us in a more favorable position to receive some measurable rain and/or snowfall in our immediate area before all is said and done.  The major liquid-equivalent precipitation (more than 1"/2.5cm) is targeted for points southeast of us, like Shimla and Dehradun... but it would be cutting it really close to say that we don't stand a chance of getting our share as well.  Anyway, it will be an interesting situation to watch between very late tonight and Saturday evening.

A ridge of high pressure rapidly builds in by Sunday, ushering in much warmer air aloft and stabilizing our atmosphere temporarily.  However -- it appears that the next chance of rain will appear by Tuesday and Wednesday, as yet another disturbance arrives on the scene.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST info on the tab at the top of the page.