Friday, May 29, 2015

seasonable conditions... (am.29.may.15)>

Some high, thin cirrus clouds are dimming the sun just slightly early this morning, otherwise it's looking great out there.  We've had another quiet night with no rainfall, and a very mild low temp of 69.4F (20.8C).

Our overall weather situation recently has been very close to normal for late May -- though our temperatures have been just on the plus-side of average/normal.  Humidity has been running very low -- mainly in the 25-35% range -- and rainfall has been very sparse since the middle of the month.  We are going to be seeing some gradual changes during the coming several days, but it looks like they're going to be happening very slowly.  The first thing is that the risk of a random PM thundershower or two re-enters the forecast starting today, and continuing through the weekend.  If we get anything at all, it's likely to be short-lived, and probably won't produce any kind of impressive rainfall amounts... but keep in mind the risk nonetheless.  Otherwise our weekend should feature a mix of sunshine and occasional clouds, along with temperatures in the same ballpark as we've seen for the last week.

A reorientation of the upper-level flow will settle in by Sunday night into Monday -- tilting to the north-northwest, and allowing a low pressure circulation center to develop over northern Pakistan, and then hover there into the middle of next week.  At the same time, there's going to be a fairly good influx of moisture converging here along the mountain slopes of north India.  We'll have to watch it day-by-day, of course, but right now it seems we could come up with a few periods of significant showers and thunderstorms between Monday and Wednesday, with temperatures dipping substantially.  No, it won't be the beginning of the monsoon season, but just a temporary break in our recent very warm and dry weather.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK can be found above, along with the just-posted AWAITING MONSOON 2015.  Check it out.