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Thursday, June 4, 2015

mixing and churning... (am.04.jun.15)>

It's cloudy and breezy at sunrise this Thursday morning (and it's now showering again just as I get ready to post this).  There's been a lot of turbulence overnight, with strong and gusty winds, a bit of thunder, along with just a few sprinkles of rain.  We've actually only had a trace of rainfall in the past 24 hours, despite the periods of drizzle and very light showers that have swept through from time to time.  The most interesting thing since last evening has been the terrific temperature fluctuations -- I'm recording an overnight low of 59.9F (15.5C), but it's been as warm as 71.8F (22.1C), and it's currently right around 66F (19C).  Our atmosphere has been mixing and churning like crazy, as evidenced by the gusty winds.

That upper-level low pressure system which has been responsible for this unseasonable weather the last several days remains centered just to our southwest, over east-central Pakistan.  The circulation continues to weaken, the air pressure is rising, and warmer air is filtering in throughout all layers of the atmosphere.  All of this indicates a trend toward greater stability over the coming 24 to 36 hours or so, but our improvements could be painstakingly slow.  The clouds are going to be tough to get rid of, and there's still a good chance of some scattered shower/thunder development somewhere around the area today into this evening.  Even tomorrow (Fri) we could see some isolated thundershower development, though I'm pretty confident that there will be more sunshine than we've seen recently.

According to all of the computer model data, we're in for a very dramatic return to very warm temperatures over the weekend, which should last into the middle of next week.  Other than perhaps some isolated PM mountain thunder development, it should be dry and generally sunny for a few days.  Genuine summer is coming back.

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