Friday, June 19, 2015

moisture surging... (pm.19.jun.15)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 70.2F (21.2C)
High temp: 82.9F (28.3C)
Rainfall: trace

We have mostly cloudy skies just before sunset this evening, and that has been the case since the mid-afternoon.  The full sunshine early this morning didn't last long, with clouds rapidly developing over the mountains, and keeping us in the back-and-forth mode with regard to sun/clouds for most of the day.  There was some weak thundershower development in our vicinity after 3:00pm, but all I saw around town were some sprinkles and brief, very light rain showers which were all over by about 4:45pm.  The rain gauge is showing nothing measurable.  Yes, the humidity is creeping upward (now close to 55%), and it is quite noticeable, in my opinion.

We're now right on the brink of a transition from summer into the monsoon season here in Himalayan north India -- though it's probably going to be quite a while before we get any kind of official monsoon declarations from the IMD.  The strong high pressure ridge which has kept us stable since about Monday afternoon is now beginning to break down, as a rather deep southeasterly flow develops in the lower levels of the atmosphere.  Rich tropical moisture will be pumped northwestward along the front slopes of the mountains over the weekend, just as the upper-levels start to cool off just a bit.  This combination will set us up for an increasing chance of some waves of significant shower and thunderstorm activity -- effective almost immediately.  Even overnight we could see some thundershower development across Himachal Pradesh, with those rain chances steadily increasing through Sunday.  We're not talking about continuous rainfall... but it's the time of year when heavy downpours lasting at least a couple of hours are becoming more likely.

All of next week is looking quite wet, as our average daily humidity levels rise dramatically.  With more clouds, more humidity, and more cloudiness, temperatures will cool down.  And that's actually the upside factor once the monsoon season settles in.

Stay on top of developments on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and AWAITING MONSOON 2015 -- on tabs at the top of the page.