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Sunday, March 1, 2015

march roaring... (am.01.mar.15)>

The wind is gusting around all over the place at sunrise on this first morning of March.  We have cloudy skies, and there is just a bit of drizzle in the air -- but nothing more than a trace of rainfall overnight.  I've recorded a low temperature of 47.8F (8.8C), but it's actually right around 52F (11C) at the moment.

An elongated upper-level circulation extends from north to south across Pakistan, with the strong southerly flow ahead of it pumping lots of mild and moisture-laden air northward into Himachal Pradesh.  This system is very dynamic, and is being fueled on the back side by an influx of much colder air from central Asia.  It's a 'clash of the seasons' type of storm system, and looks like it's going to bring us some very active weather during the coming 48 hours or so.

Although we could start getting a few rain showers at any time, the onslaught of heavier rain should hold off until perhaps late this afternoon or evening -- with some very impressive rainfall amounts being forecast by computer models between late tonight and late Monday night.  Some data is suggesting amounts in the 6-9cm (2.3-3.5") range during that time frame -- with additional amounts possible on Tuesday as showers and some thundershowers linger in the area.  Thunder and gusty winds will be likely as well, and with colder and colder air moving in aloft (especially on Monday), we could see some periods of small hail and sleet.  Climatological statistics don't favor snowfall after the 1st of March in McLeod, but of course it's still not the time of year when we can forget about what that snow line above us is doing.

The models show a great deal of inconsistency for the latter part of this week -- so it's going to remain generally unstable and cooler than normal for a while.  THE 7-DAY FORECAST can be found on the tab above.