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Monday, February 14, 2011

no relief, yet... (pm.14.feb.11)>

it looks just like the middle of monsoon season outside right now, with near zero visibility in thick fog.  the only difference is that the temp is 47F (8.3C)... so it's about 25F (14C) colder than it is during monsoon.!  it has been a rather eventful day... we've had rain showers, a bit of thunder, some hail, and then a period of sleet, clouds, fog, gusty winds at times... and even a couple of brief glimpses of sunshine thrown into the mix.  my rain gauge shows almost exactly 1.0" (2.5cm) for the total since precipitation began late saturday night... about half of that has occurred in the past 24 hours.

the upper-level low pressure area which is responsible for all of this is now located right along the kashmir/pakistan border.  it will drift slowly to the east and weaken during the coming 48 hours... but there will be enough energy left to keep us "in the soup" so to speak.  i think the potential for significant precipitation will remain with us for another 36-48 hours or so... with some gradual improvement by late wednesday or thursday.  a couple of our computer models are still advertising some heavy rainfall between now and tomorrow evening... and of course that means heavy snow potential remains for the higher elevations.

the sleet this morning is evidence of some very cold air aloft... so although it is several degrees above freezing at the surface, a mix of sleet and snow is not at all out of the question for mcleod ganj during the next day or two.  i think significant accumulations of snow will remain above 2100m (6900ft) or so... but i wouldn't be terribly surprised if i am wrong.  it will have to be carefully watched.

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with areas of fog.  periods of rain likely... possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow.  a thunderstorm is possible as well...
low: 6C (42F)

TUESDAY: more occasional rain likely... possibly mixed with sleet and snow.  good chance of a thunderstorm also.
high: 8C (46F)

TUESDAY NIGHT: good chance of rain showers.. possibly changing to sleet and snow showers.
low: 4C (39F)

WEDNESDAY: partly to mostly cloudy skies with a good chance of a few rain and/or snow showers.  still cold.
high: 7C (45F)

THURSDAY: partly cloudy and not as quite as cold, with a slight chance of a shower.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: partly cloudy and milder.!
high: 11C (52F)

SATURDAY: partly to mostly cloudy with a slight chance of a few PM showers.
high: 12C (54F)