the latest...

This blog has been inactive for several months, but you can still check the archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general info.

Sunday, February 6, 2011

increasingly nasty... (am.6.feb.11)>

*during this winter storm, click on the HAPPENING NOW tab above, to get the latest updates*

it's cloudy, windy, raining lightly, and 51F (10.5F) in upper mcleod ganj before sunrise this morning.  there were off and on light showers overnight, but the main event was the wind, which was strong and gusty pretty much all night.

it looks like we are right on the verge of getting into the main event of this storm system which has been gradually developing over the last 48 hours or so.  the three major factors coming into place are 1) a vigorous upper-level disturbance which will continue to intensify and move into northern india, and 2) lots of moisture from the arabian sea which is being transported northeastward, right into the western himalayas.  lastly 3) colder air beginning to spill southward from central asia.  this is the recipe for a potent late-winter storm in our part of the world.

expect the scattered light rain showers to become heavier and more persistent during the next 12-24 hours, as temperatures begin to fall.  moderate to heavy rain is likely on monday into tuesday... with very heavy snowfall in the mountains... mainly above 2200m (7200ft).  as i mentioned yesterday, 1-2m (3-6ft) of snow is a good bet for the highest elevations of himachal pradesh.  here in mcleod ganj, the rain may mix with and eventually change over to sleet and snow on monday or tuesday, but our accumulations (as usual) are highly dependent upon how much cold air makes it down to our elevation.  since we all live at different elevations around the area, your reports are valuable!  let me know what's happening where you are, by leaving a comment here, or on facebook.

things should calm down and warm up a bit by the middle of next week.

SUNDAY: cloudy and turning colder with periods of light rain.  some thunder possible as well.
high: 11C (51F) in the early AM, with falling temps.

SUNDAY NIGHT: cloudy and cold with periods of rain and possible thunderstorms.
low: 4C (40F)

MONDAY: rain likely... possibly becoming mixed with sleet and snow.  thunder also possible.
high: 6C (43F)

TUESDAY: an icy mix of rain, sleet and snow... perhaps changing to ALL snow.
high: 6C (43F)

WEDNESDAY: one or two rain/snow showers in the AM?  then becoming partly cloudy, milder.
high: 9C (49F)

THURSDAY: partly to mostly sunny and warming up.
high: 12C (53F)