the latest...

SATURDAY EVENING... Today's high temp was the warmest I've recorded since the 20th of December, exactly one month ago...

Monday, February 14, 2011

active wx pattern... (am.14.feb.11)>

** sleet is mixed with the rain @ 920am... evidence of much colder air aloft**

what a lovely monday morning.  we had a nice thundershower around 630am, which delivered a fair amount of small hail... it's so slippery on my terrance, i almost ended up on my arse when i went out to check the rain gauge a few minutes ago.  our total rainfall since all this began late saturday night is now up to 0.91" (2.3cm), and my early morning temp here in upper mcleod ganj is 43F (6.1C).

at the moment, i can't tell where the snow line is... we are so socked in with clouds and fog... but from what i can surmise, it's still fairly high, and not an immediate threat.

this morning's satellite perspective shows the center of circulation of this storm system now moving into northern pakistan.  it will continue to drift eastward during the next 2-3 days... and that means that we can expect more of the same.  in fact, even by the end of the week, our upper-level flow will still be "dirty"... that means we'll be underneath a strong jet stream embedded with all kinds of little wiggles and disturbances.  so... get used to cloudy, wet, occasionally windy and unseasonably cold weather.

there will be some gradual cooling in all levels of the atmosphere, that's why we'll have to carefully watch the potential for the snow line to make it into mcleod ganj.  tomorrow and wednesday look to be the best days for a snow/sleet mixture to occur here.  obviously, very heavy snowfall of 2 feet or more is occurring up above 2500m (8200ft), but that heavy snow will drop closer to 2000m (6500ft) during the next couple of days.

MONDAY: clouds, with a few brief breaks, breezy and cold.  periods of rain (mixed with sleet), along with a thunderstorm or two.
high: 8C (47F)

MONDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy, windy and cold, with occasional rain (mixed with sleet/snow) and possible thunderstorms.
low: 5C (41F)

TUESDAY: more rain likely.. possibly mixed with sleet and/or snow.  otherwise mostly cloudy with gusty winds. (more thunder possible as well).
high: 7C (45F)

WEDNESDAY: good chance of occasional rain and snow.  cold and breezy.
high: 7C (44F)

THURSDAY: some leftover rain and snow showers around... otherwise partly to mostly cloudy and a bit milder.
high: 9C (49F)

FRIDAY: a mix of clouds and sun, but still a slight chance of a shower or two.  milder!
high: 11C (51F)