Thursday, September 15, 2011

the last gasp?.. (pm.15.sep.11)>

skies are mostly cloudy this evening, with some patches of fog.  it has been a very wet day... nearly a half inch of rain fell prior to sunrise this morning, with a massive deluge right around the noon hour which dumped 2.33" (5.9cm) in about an hour and a half.  there was flooding in many areas, including the main square, where the western union office was inundated and rocks/debris piled up, as usual.  the total rainfall for the day = 2.81" (7.1cm) thus far, and our high temp was 71.8F (22.1C).

...and we're not out of the woods yet.  as we've been talking about, the first significant "western disturbance" of the season is making its move in our direction, and with all the tropical moisture in place, we are in line for more moderate to heavy rainfall during the next 24 to 36 hours.  in fact, some places from southwestern kashmir through punjab and western himachal pradesh could pick up an additional 4-5" (10-13cm) before saturday morning rolls around.

after that, much drier central asian air will pour across the area in the mid-and upper-levels of the atmosphere, with significantly drier air at the surface as well.  humidity will drop over the weekend, along with a diminishing potential for heavy rain.  it remains to be seen whether this system will be strong enough to push this year's monsoon moisture far enough south and east of us for good... but it will be a huge leap in the right direction.

THURSDAY NIGHT: mostly cloudy with occasional fog.  good chance of more rain (heavy??) and possible thunderstorms overnight.
low: 18C (64F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and thunderstorms.  heavy rainfall potential, again.
high: 22C (71F)

SATURDAY: early morning rain possible, with a chance of a shower or two again later in the day.  otherwise partly cloudy and much less humid.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY: partly sunny and pleasant.  risk of a shower, mainly in the PM.
high: 23C (74F)

MONDAY: a mix of sun and clouds with a chance of an afternoon thundershower.
high: 24C (75F)

TUESDAY: partly cloudy with a risk of mainly afternoon showers.
high: 24C (75F)