As the sun peeks over the Dhauladars early on this Monday morning we have some fairly thick haze and a few clouds across the area. It has been a warm and humid night -- I recorded a low temp of 75.6F (24.2C), and there has been no rainfall.
We are right on the verge of major changes, the only question is whether these changes will occur very quickly during the next 24-36 hours, or if they will be drawn out until late Wednesday or Thursday. The bubble of high pressure which has been keeping us warm, high, and dry for the past several days is now weakening and retreating to the west. Simultaneously, rich tropical moisture is steadily surging northwestward from Nepal into Uttarakhand and Himachal. Already there is a cluster of thundershowers this morning near and just to the southeast of Shimla... this development is much earlier than any of the computer models have been forecasting. That's why we should be braced for the first surges of this tropical moisture to arrive at any time, leading to an arrival of genuine monsoon conditions by the middle of the week.
So... it looks like we can expect increasing humidity, increasing clouds, an increasing risk of fog, increasing chances of rain and thunder, and gradually cooling temperatures as we progress through the next four or five days.
We are right on the verge of major changes, the only question is whether these changes will occur very quickly during the next 24-36 hours, or if they will be drawn out until late Wednesday or Thursday. The bubble of high pressure which has been keeping us warm, high, and dry for the past several days is now weakening and retreating to the west. Simultaneously, rich tropical moisture is steadily surging northwestward from Nepal into Uttarakhand and Himachal. Already there is a cluster of thundershowers this morning near and just to the southeast of Shimla... this development is much earlier than any of the computer models have been forecasting. That's why we should be braced for the first surges of this tropical moisture to arrive at any time, leading to an arrival of genuine monsoon conditions by the middle of the week.
So... it looks like we can expect increasing humidity, increasing clouds, an increasing risk of fog, increasing chances of rain and thunder, and gradually cooling temperatures as we progress through the next four or five days.
MONDAY:
a mix of sun, haze and occasional clouds. very warm and humid, with a chance of a shower or thundershower developing.
high: 31C (88F)
MONDAY NIGHT:
a thundershower in the area? otherwise partly cloudy, warm and muggy.
low: 24C (76F)
TUESDAY:
both hazy sun and clouds. warm and humid with a shower or thundershower possible.
high: 31C (87F)
WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun, clouds and some fog. better chance of some downpours with thunder.
morning low: 23C (74F)
daytime high: 28C (83F)
THURSDAY:
mostly cloudy with periods of fog, rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 22C (72F)
daytime high: 26C (79F)
FRIDAY:
clouds and fog... periods of rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 21C (69F)
daytime high: 25C (77F)
