Thursday, July 19, 2012

loaded with potential... (pm.19.jul.12)>

It is partly cloudy this evening, with the humidity running high -- in the range of 85-88%.  We had a surprisingly extended period of sunshine this morning, which lasted all the way into the early afternoon.  That allowed my high temp at the top of town to reach 81.0F (27.2C), which was the warmest since the 2nd of July -- the day before monsoon conditions set in!  There has been no rainfall today since the thundershowers which deposited 0.35" (9mm) in my rain gauge during the wee hours of the morning.

At this time yesterday, it looked like the next major surge of monsoon conditions was moving in quite a bit ahead of schedule, but that deep tropical moisture retreated again this morning, leaving us with a warm, humid, but otherwise uneventful day.  So... we're back in our situation of having lots of low-level moisture around, but very little support in the upper atmosphere to produce widespread fog and heavy rains.  We'll be watching for some thundershower development tonight, but the real advance of the next phase of the monsoon should hold off until at least tomorrow.

As the weekend progresses, a developing low pressure area in the vicinity of Kolkata will intensify and drift to the west -- reaching the very center of the country by late Sunday into early Monday.  All the data continues to point to a dramatic increase in sustained moisture throughout all levels of the atmosphere over the weekend into Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.  Several inches of rain will be likely during that time period.

THURSDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy and humid.  some shower/thundershower development possible.
low: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY:
a period of sun possible, otherwise mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of fog, showers and thundershowers.
high: 24C (75F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy skies.  a round of showers/thundershowers likely.
low: 19C (67F)

SATURDAY:
mostly cloudy, with a peek or two of sun.  good chance of some fog, with occasional rain and thunder likely.
high: 23C (73F)

SUNDAY:
mostly cloudy with occasional fog, rain and thunder likely.
morning low: 19C (67F)
daytime high: 22C (72F)

MONDAY:
clouds, fog, rain and some thunder.
morning low: 19C (66F)
daytime high: 21C (71F)

TUESDAY:
cloudy and foggy, with periods of rain and thunder likely.
low: 18C (65F)
daytime high: 21C (71F)