the latest...

TOTAL RAINFALL yesterday afternoon/evening = 0.41" (1.0cm)

Monday, April 29, 2013

increasing thunder risk... (am.29.apr.13)>

*Update @ 9:18am... As of now, there has been no thundershower development anywhere near us.  It's partly cloudy, and my temp here in the upper part of town is already getting close to 70F (21C)... I may need to bump up the high temp forecast a bit, if we get some decent sunshine going.

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There are lots of clouds clinging to the mountains at sunrise this morning, but some blue sky off to the south and west.  Humidity is currently 41%, and I've recorded a mild pre-dawn low temperature of 60.6F (15.9C).  My rain gauge is dry, but there could have been a couple of sprinkles of rain overnight -- nothing more than that.

The transition from April to May is going to be dominated by yet another period of instability, with a good chance of a couple of rounds of showers and thunderstorms between now and Wednesday evening.  An upper-level disturbance is currently spinning around over northern Afghanistan, and will slide slowly southeastward during the first part of this week.  Our air mass has been fairly dry since Friday, but we'll have one more surge of moisture as this system approaches, providing fuel for some thunderstorm development.  Although it may be hard to believe, we're still a bit below average for April rainfall (1.67"/4.2cm this year vs. 1.90"/4.9cm average), but we stand a good chance of making that up during the next couple of days.

A batch of drier and more stable air will sweep into northern India by Thursday, setting us up for what looks like a nice stretch of generally sunny, dry and warm weather as we move through the first part of May.  I've yet to record 80F/27C this season, so we're behind schedule for a real taste of summer warmth.

The CURRENT FORECAST for the next 5 days is located on the tab above.