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Tuesday, April 30, 2013

a bit precarious... (am.30.apr.13)>

*Update @ 2:28pm... There is still absolutely no evidence of any thundershower development as of this hour.  We've had sunshine through thin, high clouds all day, with a bit of cumulus development over the mountains.  This air mass remains only marginally unstable, and humidity is still quite low, at 38%.  It's going to take something rather dramatic to trigger any thunder or rain development this afternoon, but we'll have to keep an eye on it anyway.

It is mostly sunny and pleasantly mild early this morning, with a humidity reading of 45%.  My low temperature here on Tushita Road below the mountaineering center was 61.3F (16.3C), which is one of the warmest of the season.  There has been no rainfall overnight.

We're now going on four days without rain here at the tail end of April, but it's still looking like we may get a final dose before the month officially comes to an end at midnight.  An upper-level disturbance continues to lurk to our northwest, but has so far failed to exert much of an influence on us here in Himachal Pradesh.  Also, our air mass is relatively dry, with no strong evidence indicating it is going to moisten up appreciably as this system swings through during the next 36 hours or so.  These factors are causing me to be less excited about significant rainfall between now and late tomorrow (Wed) -- but all of the computer models are still showing at least one wave of showers and thunderstorms developing during that time frame.  We'll just have to be on alert for potentially rapid destabilization of the atmosphere later today into tomorrow which could stir up a round or two of thunderstorms.

Any moisture that does materialize here will be pushed out again by Thursday, with a dry and generally stable air mass expected to settle in for the first weekend of May.  Although we could have a dose of cooler air in association with thunderstorms in the near term, temperatures will be flirting with their highest levels of 2013 by Friday and Saturday.  Still waiting for the first 80F/27C of the season at my observation station, which may not be too far away...

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