Thursday, April 19, 2012

relishing the moment... (pm.19.apr.12)>

A partly cloudy evening is in progress, after arguably the nicest day we've had in the past week and a half.  Despite periods of clouds here and there, we ended up with a good amount of sunshine, along with a high temperature of 76.5F (24.7C).  It was the first day in exactly one week without at least a few drops of rain or a couple of rumbles of thunder.

But if we're wanting to get attached to this quiet weather today, we'll be disappointed.  There is a steep ridge of high pressure in place over the northwest 1/3 of India at the moment, but it will be gradually replaced by an approaching broad low pressure trough during the coming 48 hours or so.  That means this brief period of stability is going to again yield to an increasingly unstable air mass and consequently, a rising chance of thunderstorms. The center of this disturbance will move from southern Afghanistan into northern India by Sunday... and already there are scattered thunderstorms breaking out as near to us as eastern Pakistan and even northern Rajasthan.

Computer models are painting a variety of scenarios with regard to rainfall probability and intensity, which isn't abnormal when a system like this approaches.  Just be prepared for rapid changes, especially between late tomorrow and Sunday afternoon.  Temperatures will dip a few degrees early next week, in response to the return of an unsettled atmosphere...

THURSDAY NIGHT:
patches of mainly high clouds.  mild.
low: 17C (63F)

FRIDAY:
warm... with a mix of sun and clouds.  a thunderstorm is possible by late afternoon.
high: 26C (78F)

FRIDAY NIGHT:
partly cloudy.  a good chance of a period of showers and thunderstorms.
low: 16C (61F)

SATURDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy, with a good chance of a couple of thunderstorms around.
high: 25C (77F)

SUNDAY:
a mix of clouds and sun.  not quite as warm, with a good chance of a period of showers and thunderstorms.
morning low: 16C (60F)
daytime high: 24C (75F)

MONDAY:
partly sunny skies.  risk of a thundershower.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 23C (73F)

TUESDAY:
sunny to partly cloudy.  chance of a PM thundershower.
morning low: 14C (58F)
daytime high: 23C (74F)