Thursday, October 6, 2011

bouncing between extremes... (pm.6.oct.11)>

in the main square of mcleod ganj, the fog is very thick this evening... in stark contrast to the beautiful 100% sunny skies we enjoyed this morning until about 10:30am.  that sunshine boosted our high temp to 70.0F (21.1C).  rainfall as of the time of this writing has only amounted to a few sprinkles... much like the scenario of the last two or three days.

satellite pics this evening show scattered thunderstorms occurring well to our west and north, across pakistan and kashmir, while a couple of isolated thundershowers dot the mountain ranges across himachal and uttarakhand.  once again, sunshine is abundant throughout northern india, away from the mountains.

those thunderstorms to our northwest are associated with an approaching upper-level disturbance which will begin to dominate our weather pattern as we move into the weekend.  it will do two things.  1) the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be on the increase, especially tomorrow and saturday, and 2) drier mountain air will be pulled down into our neighborhood as it passes, by sunday.  my faith in computer model guidance is at an all-time low, based on its failure to accurately diagnose the lingering low-level moisture during this post-monsoon period... but still, there are hopeful signs that we'll see a significant drop in humidity over the weekend.

if you plan to be hiking or overnighting in the mountains during the next few days, be prepared for rapid changes, which could include sudden thunderstorms with hail, and sharply colder temperatures.  down here at our elevation, temperatures will remain dependent on the clouds vs. sun battle... pleasantly warm in the sunshine, but suddenly chilly during bouts of fog and/or showers.

THURSDAY NIGHT: a foggy evening... giving way to partly cloudy skies after dark.  slight chance of an overnight thundershower.
low: 16C (60F)

FRIDAY: sunshine most likely til mid-morning, then partly to mostly cloudy with an increasing chance of a period of showers and thunderstorms.
high: 21C (70F)

SATURDAY: partly cloudy with a round of showers and thunderstorms likely.
high: 21C (69F)

SUNDAY: a mix of sun and clouds with less humidity.  just a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

MONDAY: partly to mostly sunny and pleasant.
high: 21C (69F)

TUESDAY:  partly cloudy skies.  comfortable temps.
high: 21C (70F)