Tuesday, September 24, 2013

nothing fixed... (am.24.sep.13)>

We have clouds and a few patches of blue sky at sunrise this Tuesday morning.  The temperature here in the upper part of town is a mild 64.8F (18.2C), and humidity remains rather high -- at 77%.  I've recorded no additional rainfall overnight, but the 24 hour total is 0.51" (1.3cm).  That's the first time there has been measurable rainfall at my location on Tushita Road below the Mountaineering Center since Sunday the 15th of Sept.

The transition out of monsoon season is different every year, and this year is no exception.  We had a beautiful 'clean sweep' of tropical moisture on the 15th/16th of this month, which led to about a week without measurable precipitation.  That prompted the India Met Department to declare monsoon withdrawal for all but extreme eastern Himachal Pradesh.  However, since this past weekend, the back edge of monsoon/tropical moisture has been trying desperately to push back north and westward, and has been partially successful.  The really heavy rains have been happening well to our south, over Gujarat and southeastern portions of Rajasthan -- but still, we've seen some higher humidity, longer stretches of clouds, patchy fog, and even the development of scattered showers/thundershowers up here along the mountains recently.

New data which comes out twice a day has been showing a less aggressive surge of drier air this week, which means that this stubborn moisture may not get swept out of here as decisively as it had looked earlier.  To be honest, it is very unusual for all remains of tropical moisture to get pushed out of here once and for all by the middle of September.  Occasional rain showers typically linger until the end of the month anyway -- and actually our September rainfall tally is running a few inches below normal, believe it or not.

Bottom line -- expect the mix of sun, clouds and some patchy PM fog to continue, and also don't be surprised by some random thundershower development mainly during the afternoon/evening hours.  Any extended periods of sun will send temperatures above the norm for this time of year.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.