We have a mix of sun and high clouds across the area early this morning -- and I've recorded an overnight low temp of 43.7F (6.5C).
The winter storm we're all waiting for is still in the very early stages of development, and this morning's new computer model data is virtually unchanged with regard to expected events during the coming few days. Ingredients are just starting to come together -- cold air dropping southeastward from central Asia, dynamic energy/circulation in the upper atmosphere forming over Afghanistan, and deep moisture creeping northward from the Arabian Sea. All of this is going to take another 48 hours or so to create a strong, well-organized storm system over the western Himalayan region.
There is still plenty of time to get prepared... since today (Tuesday) will be quiet, and tomorrow (Wednesday) will most likely be fairly OK as well, other than an increasing chance of some scattered rain showers. The real show will hold off until Thursday and Friday, when we could see the development of some heavy rain, thunder and lightning, gusty winds, and a definite change to snow somewhere near us or just barely above.
It's always virtually impossible to nail down the exact rain/snow line until events are already underway, but at this point, I think elevations at 2000m/6500ft and above stand a high likelihood of getting snow, especially by mid-day Friday. The rest of us should just be ready and prepared... this is the heart of the season for snowfall in Himachal.
I'll post a full, updated forecast this evening...
The winter storm we're all waiting for is still in the very early stages of development, and this morning's new computer model data is virtually unchanged with regard to expected events during the coming few days. Ingredients are just starting to come together -- cold air dropping southeastward from central Asia, dynamic energy/circulation in the upper atmosphere forming over Afghanistan, and deep moisture creeping northward from the Arabian Sea. All of this is going to take another 48 hours or so to create a strong, well-organized storm system over the western Himalayan region.
There is still plenty of time to get prepared... since today (Tuesday) will be quiet, and tomorrow (Wednesday) will most likely be fairly OK as well, other than an increasing chance of some scattered rain showers. The real show will hold off until Thursday and Friday, when we could see the development of some heavy rain, thunder and lightning, gusty winds, and a definite change to snow somewhere near us or just barely above.
It's always virtually impossible to nail down the exact rain/snow line until events are already underway, but at this point, I think elevations at 2000m/6500ft and above stand a high likelihood of getting snow, especially by mid-day Friday. The rest of us should just be ready and prepared... this is the heart of the season for snowfall in Himachal.
I'll post a full, updated forecast this evening...
