Update @ 8:53pm... It is now mostly cloudy with a temp of 44.8F (7.1C) here on Tushita Road just below the Mountaineering Center. There is nothing immediately threatening, according to satellite photos... but it's not a bad idea to start thinking about charging batteries on laptops, cell phones, iPads, etc. Also, if you rely on a motorized pump for your water supply (like me), you might want to make sure your tank is full either tonight or early tomorrow. You never know when we might get a power cut that lasts for many hours or even a few days, as weather conditions start to deteriorate.
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Wednesday's stats:
Early morning low temp: 41.7F (5.4C)
Afternoon high temp: 53.4F (11.9C)
Rainfall: none
It's very hazy just after sunset this evening, otherwise we have partly cloudy skies. Today certainly hasn't given much of a hint about the coming radical change of weather -- we had a good amount of sunshine, along with temps which still hovered a bit above normal for the middle of January.
The upper-level disturbance which will be the 'engine' of our developing winter storm is now over northern Afghanistan. It will dive into southern Pakistan by mid-day Thursday, then lift northeastward directly across Himachal Pradesh late Thursday night and Friday. All of the necessary ingredients for a major dose of wet and wintry weather continue to come together -- much colder air gradually advancing from the northwest, and juicy moisture creeping in from the south. Computer models all remain very consistent with a heavy rain and snow event for our area; the latest info showing 8-10cm (3-4") of liquid equivalent moisture between late tonight and Friday night.
Who will get rain and who will get snow? That's going to be the burning question by late tomorrow as we watch much colder air arriving in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Points above Dharamkot stand to get more than a foot of snow (probably 2-3 feet or more near Triund), with several inches possible here in McLeod. BUT -- we all know from past experience that the placement of the rain/snow line is a delicate art, so careful observation of the situation as it evolves is the only way to play this. Thunderstorms and occasionally gusty winds are likely as the core of this system moves through as well...especially on Friday. By far, the heaviest snow I've ever seen here has occurred during thunderstorms.
By Saturday morning things should be rapidly calming down, with generally quiet (but cold) weather for the first part of next week.
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Wednesday's stats:
Early morning low temp: 41.7F (5.4C)
Afternoon high temp: 53.4F (11.9C)
Rainfall: none
It's very hazy just after sunset this evening, otherwise we have partly cloudy skies. Today certainly hasn't given much of a hint about the coming radical change of weather -- we had a good amount of sunshine, along with temps which still hovered a bit above normal for the middle of January.
The upper-level disturbance which will be the 'engine' of our developing winter storm is now over northern Afghanistan. It will dive into southern Pakistan by mid-day Thursday, then lift northeastward directly across Himachal Pradesh late Thursday night and Friday. All of the necessary ingredients for a major dose of wet and wintry weather continue to come together -- much colder air gradually advancing from the northwest, and juicy moisture creeping in from the south. Computer models all remain very consistent with a heavy rain and snow event for our area; the latest info showing 8-10cm (3-4") of liquid equivalent moisture between late tonight and Friday night.
Who will get rain and who will get snow? That's going to be the burning question by late tomorrow as we watch much colder air arriving in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Points above Dharamkot stand to get more than a foot of snow (probably 2-3 feet or more near Triund), with several inches possible here in McLeod. BUT -- we all know from past experience that the placement of the rain/snow line is a delicate art, so careful observation of the situation as it evolves is the only way to play this. Thunderstorms and occasionally gusty winds are likely as the core of this system moves through as well...especially on Friday. By far, the heaviest snow I've ever seen here has occurred during thunderstorms.
By Saturday morning things should be rapidly calming down, with generally quiet (but cold) weather for the first part of next week.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
increasing clouds. a couple of scattered light rain showers possible late.
low: 6C (42F)
THURSDAY:
partly to mostly cloudy with increasing rain potential. turning colder.
high: 9C (49F)
THURSDAY NIGHT:
cloudy and cold with periods of rain... possibly changing to snow. thunder and gusty winds at times.
low: 1C (34F)
FRIDAY:
rain and/or snow likely, occasionally heavy. very cold, with a good chance of thunder and gusty winds at times.
high: 3C (38F)
SATURDAY:
slight chance of a lingering snow shower in the early morning, otherwise periods of both clouds and sun. still very cold.
morning low: -2C (29F)
daytime high: 4C (40F)
SUNDAY:
partly cloudy skies... slightly milder temps.
morning low: 0C (32F)
daytime high: 6C (43F)
MONDAY:
a mix of sun and some clouds. milder, but still below normal temps.
morning low: 2C (36F)
daytime high: 8C (46F)
