-Most recent updates posted at the top of the page-
Update @ 5:40pm... No major changes since last report. We're in the middle of the longest period of sustained rainfall since this whole thing began yesterday morning. Have had reports of snow falling in Dharamkot, Naddi, and even the upper reaches of McLeod this afternoon. I'm working on a full forecast update now. Will post that within the hour.
Update @ 3:05pm... Some wet snowflakes are mixing in with moderate rain here in the upper part of town -- and from my limited perspective, it seems that the snow line has made quite a bit of progress down the mountain in the last couple of hours. Haven't heard recently from anyone in Naddi or Dharamkot, but I would think they've got at least a rain/snow combo happening now. My current temp is 37.8F (3.2C). As the center of this storm approaches in the next several hours we will get our chance to flirt with a rain/snow changeover in some areas.
Update @ 1:18pm... Since about noon, conditions have been going down fast. There was a period of sleet/ice pellets in the main market (that's where I was at the time), and now that I've made it back home, I have zero visibility in dense fog up here, with a moderate rain shower in progress. The temp has dropped to 40.1F (4.5C), and though my humidity gauge indicates 91%, the fog would mean the 100% saturation point has been reached. Our storm system's counter-clockwise circulation center is now right on the Rajasthan/Punjab border, and will continue moving northeast -- putting it directly overhead sometime before midnight. By the look of things, both out the window and through the satellite vantage point, we've got a rough afternoon and evening ahead...
Update @ 11:09am... That opening in the clouds to our south seems to be getting devoured from its perimeter, thanks to this extremely unstable airmass overhead. Temp here is up to 45.1F (7.3C), with humidity at 63%. Winds are still very strong, and I have no power.
Update @ 10:20am... Vicious wind gusts here in the upper part of town, stronger than ever during the past 10-15 minutes. On another note, the latest satellite pic shows widespread cloudiness all over northern India, but a "donut hole" has opened up over northeastern Punjab, and may actually give us a period of sun later this morning, if it doesn't fill in quickly with more developing clouds. (Power flickering on and off here)
Update @ 9:54am... New computer model data, hot off the press, is STILL calling for 5-6cm (2-2.5") of rain here before this system totally moves out late tonight. As I said last night, either the data is seriously off-base, or we really do have more development in store. Satellite photos show an impressive circulation southwest of us over extreme northern Rajasthan, along with lots of moisture still being pulled northward ahead of it. It's going to be an interesting day and evening ahead, whether you want much more rain and snow (and wind) or not...
Update @ 8:26am... Total rainfall at my place is now 0.40" (1cm). Rain has eased off at the moment, but winds are strong and gusty again. The snow line appears to be between Dharamkot and Galu temple. Have heard from Naddi that there is no snow there, but the current temp (and low) is 34F (1C).
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We have clouds, some fog, light to moderate rain, and occasionally gusty winds just before sunrise on this Friday morning. I've recorded only an additional 0.15" (4mm) of rain as of 7am, bringing the storm total to 0.25" (6mm) at my location on Tushita Road just below the Mountaineering Center. The low has been 39.4F (4.1C), and the temp is currently hovering just barely above that.
Thus far, our storm system has been under performing in the rainfall department, but over performing with regard to the wind. It is still too dark to see where exactly the snow line is located, but based on our temperature here, it is most likely still above Dharamkot and Naddi.
It looks like there is plenty of action yet to come today. The center of the upper-level circulation didn't move very far overnight -- it is now located right along the Pakistan/Rajasthan border, northeast of Jaisalmer, and should lift northeastward today, ending up in northern Punjab by around 6:00pm. That's going to keep us in a very favorable position to keep getting occasional rain/snow here in Himachal. New computer model data is tenaciously consistent with 6-7cm (2-3") liquid precipitation for our immediate area by this evening... but rainfall rates are obviously going to have to increase substantially for us to get that amount of water.
Snowfall potential?? The arrival of significantly colder air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is the other part of the equation that we haven't really seen materialize yet. As the center of this system gets closer throughout the day, we'll have to watch carefully for a changeover from rain to snow occurring at lower and lower elevations. They'll be measuring snow by the feet up above 2200m/7200ft or so.
Looking further ahead... this storm should wind down tonight, with rain/snow chances diminishing by tomorrow (Sat) morning.
As always, pertinent updates to follow...
Update @ 5:40pm... No major changes since last report. We're in the middle of the longest period of sustained rainfall since this whole thing began yesterday morning. Have had reports of snow falling in Dharamkot, Naddi, and even the upper reaches of McLeod this afternoon. I'm working on a full forecast update now. Will post that within the hour.
Update @ 3:05pm... Some wet snowflakes are mixing in with moderate rain here in the upper part of town -- and from my limited perspective, it seems that the snow line has made quite a bit of progress down the mountain in the last couple of hours. Haven't heard recently from anyone in Naddi or Dharamkot, but I would think they've got at least a rain/snow combo happening now. My current temp is 37.8F (3.2C). As the center of this storm approaches in the next several hours we will get our chance to flirt with a rain/snow changeover in some areas.
Update @ 1:18pm... Since about noon, conditions have been going down fast. There was a period of sleet/ice pellets in the main market (that's where I was at the time), and now that I've made it back home, I have zero visibility in dense fog up here, with a moderate rain shower in progress. The temp has dropped to 40.1F (4.5C), and though my humidity gauge indicates 91%, the fog would mean the 100% saturation point has been reached. Our storm system's counter-clockwise circulation center is now right on the Rajasthan/Punjab border, and will continue moving northeast -- putting it directly overhead sometime before midnight. By the look of things, both out the window and through the satellite vantage point, we've got a rough afternoon and evening ahead...
Update @ 11:09am... That opening in the clouds to our south seems to be getting devoured from its perimeter, thanks to this extremely unstable airmass overhead. Temp here is up to 45.1F (7.3C), with humidity at 63%. Winds are still very strong, and I have no power.
Update @ 10:20am... Vicious wind gusts here in the upper part of town, stronger than ever during the past 10-15 minutes. On another note, the latest satellite pic shows widespread cloudiness all over northern India, but a "donut hole" has opened up over northeastern Punjab, and may actually give us a period of sun later this morning, if it doesn't fill in quickly with more developing clouds. (Power flickering on and off here)
Update @ 9:54am... New computer model data, hot off the press, is STILL calling for 5-6cm (2-2.5") of rain here before this system totally moves out late tonight. As I said last night, either the data is seriously off-base, or we really do have more development in store. Satellite photos show an impressive circulation southwest of us over extreme northern Rajasthan, along with lots of moisture still being pulled northward ahead of it. It's going to be an interesting day and evening ahead, whether you want much more rain and snow (and wind) or not...
Update @ 8:26am... Total rainfall at my place is now 0.40" (1cm). Rain has eased off at the moment, but winds are strong and gusty again. The snow line appears to be between Dharamkot and Galu temple. Have heard from Naddi that there is no snow there, but the current temp (and low) is 34F (1C).
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We have clouds, some fog, light to moderate rain, and occasionally gusty winds just before sunrise on this Friday morning. I've recorded only an additional 0.15" (4mm) of rain as of 7am, bringing the storm total to 0.25" (6mm) at my location on Tushita Road just below the Mountaineering Center. The low has been 39.4F (4.1C), and the temp is currently hovering just barely above that.
Thus far, our storm system has been under performing in the rainfall department, but over performing with regard to the wind. It is still too dark to see where exactly the snow line is located, but based on our temperature here, it is most likely still above Dharamkot and Naddi.
It looks like there is plenty of action yet to come today. The center of the upper-level circulation didn't move very far overnight -- it is now located right along the Pakistan/Rajasthan border, northeast of Jaisalmer, and should lift northeastward today, ending up in northern Punjab by around 6:00pm. That's going to keep us in a very favorable position to keep getting occasional rain/snow here in Himachal. New computer model data is tenaciously consistent with 6-7cm (2-3") liquid precipitation for our immediate area by this evening... but rainfall rates are obviously going to have to increase substantially for us to get that amount of water.
Snowfall potential?? The arrival of significantly colder air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere is the other part of the equation that we haven't really seen materialize yet. As the center of this system gets closer throughout the day, we'll have to watch carefully for a changeover from rain to snow occurring at lower and lower elevations. They'll be measuring snow by the feet up above 2200m/7200ft or so.
Looking further ahead... this storm should wind down tonight, with rain/snow chances diminishing by tomorrow (Sat) morning.
As always, pertinent updates to follow...
