the latest...

This blog has been inactive for several months, but you can still check the archived posts (right column) and stats (above) for general info.

Thursday, October 17, 2013

humidity drops further... (am.17.oct.13)>

It is absolutely clear again just before sunrise on this Thursday morning.  Humidity is down considerably from previous mornings -- currently just 42% -- and the temperature is 59.8F (15.4C).  There has been no rain overnight, and only a trace in the past 24 hours, due to a couple of random sprinkles yesterday during the mid-afternoon.

A large area of high pressure from the surface into the mid-levels of the atmosphere is strengthening over Rajasthan and Gujarat, providing dry and stable conditions across almost all of northwest into central India.  In the upper-levels, a brisk westerly flow is pretty well established, further preventing deep tropical moisture from creeping back northwestward.  On the negative side, we still have traces of lingering moisture here along the front slopes of the mountains -- and there are a couple of weak upper-level disturbances passing through the western Himalayan region.  This means we can't really count on a 100% sunny and dry forecast, in spite of the fact that overall conditions are consistently friendlier than they've been in a long time.

Sunshine should continue to dominate the morning hours, but I'm still a little nervous about what the afternoons will look like during the next few days.  The various computer models are projecting anything from zero rainfall up to perhaps 0.40" (1cm) of rain potential during isolated PM showers/thundershowers, even as the average moisture content of our air mass continues to decrease.   Enjoy the generally brighter and more pleasant weather scenario... just don't be too shocked if something pops up on top of us during the marginally sketchy PM hours.

CURRENT FORECAST details for the next five days can be found on the tab above.