Thursday, October 31, 2013

disturbance arrives... (am.31.oct.13)>

*Update @ 8:40am... I have 0.09" (2mm) in the rain gauge since last report, but it seems to be brightening up a bit at the moment.  The temperature at my place dipped to 49.6F (9.8C) during the shower/gusty winds an hour ago.  That's a new low for the season!

*Update @ 7:21am... A heavier rain shower has developed overhead just now.  We'll keep an eye out to see if this might be the first sign of some more significant development here along the Dhauladhars this morning.  With much colder air aloft, I'm sure there will be a fresh coating of snow on the mountains before this system is finished with us.

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Conditions have changed rapidly overnight, as expected, thanks to the arrival of a broad upper-level disturbance.  It is cloudy and breezy just before sunrise, with a couple of sprinkles and very light rain showers around the area.  Although the ground is wet, my rain gauge is showing just a trace of precipitation during the early morning hours.  The humidity reading is currently 52%, with a temperature of 52.9F (11.6C).  The low temp, which occurred a couple of hours before dawn, was 50.5F (10.3C) -- and that's the coolest temperature I've recorded this season so far.

It's actually kind of nice to see a genuine autumn-like weather system make an appearance.  Jet stream winds are oriented from the northwest to the southeast across the western Himalayan region... carrying this upper-level disturbance/circulation into our neighborhood.  There's a good amount of dynamic energy associated with it, but very little moisture to work with.  We'll see if we can muster up a round or two of more significant shower or thundershower action today into Friday, but I think rainfall amounts will remain generally on the lighter side.  Already the winds have been gusty at times, and that could be the case off and on, until this system pulls out of here by Friday night or early Saturday.  We should still get some sun in the midst of these clouds, showers and wind... so don't expect it to be totally dark and gloomy for the next 48 hours straight.

Colder air will continue to filter in as we head into the weekend, but as always, the presence of sunshine takes the edge off cooler temps.  And by Saturday, things should be calming down once again for a few days...

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.