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Sunday, October 13, 2013

atmospheric overhaul... (am.13.oct.13)>

It is partly cloudy at sunrise, with a mild temperature of 62.5F (16.9C), and a humidity reading of 56%.  Last evening's very gusty winds and random sprinkles of rain came to an end before midnight, leaving things calm, quiet and dry overnight.

The evolution of our weather scenario the last few days has been very interesting to watch.  The entire nature and character of the atmosphere has been changing -- from the highest levels, all the way down to the surface.  This is what we've been waiting a very long time for, since things remained almost totally stagnant for weeks after our official monsoon withdrawal back around the 20th of September.  The lingering moist tropical murkiness has been swept out of here, for the most part, but we've only just begun to see the real 'drying out' of the atmosphere that is expected to occur as this week unfolds.

In the near term, there is an upper-level disturbance with an associated pool of cold air parked over northern India at the moment.  There may still be just enough moisture to provide fuel for some scattered shower or thundershower development today, but as that disturbance departs, and a more pervasive dry westerly flow establishes itself across the western Himalayas, the shower risk should continue to diminish.

Tropical Cyclone Phailin made landfall along the Odisha coast late last evening, and is weakening as it moves slowly toward the north-northwest.  All computer model guidance is keeping the leftover moisture from this system very far off to our southeast, as expected.

The five-day CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.