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Friday, October 4, 2013

a fickle friday... (am.04.oct.13)>

Just like last evening right around sunset, we have a variable and rapidly changing sky as the sun rises this morning.  There are numerous patches of fog and low clouds drifting around, but also some sunlight trying to poke through.  I have an early morning temp near 60F (15.5C) here in the upper part of town, while the humidity is very high -- at 91%.  There has been no additional rainfall overnight.

It's going to be another day dominated by this very moist air mass and some moderate instability, which means we'll see the all too familiar back-and-forth between clouds, sun, and patchy fog.  There will also be a good chance of some scattered showers and thundershowers roaming the landscape, with development possible at any time today into this evening.  Be prepared for that.

There have been some interesting developments with regard to computer model output/data during the last 24 hours or so, with a marked trend toward lower moisture content in the atmosphere and diminishing rain chances starting perhaps as early as late Saturday.  In fact, all of the model guidance is wiping out shower/thundershower development by Sunday, and keeping things dry into at least the middle of next week.  I am not buying this yet, as I think even if the data is true, we'll still have to fight PM shower development here at our elevation along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars.  BUT -- these are the most positive signs I've seen on the weather charts in a couple of weeks, so it will be worth watching.

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