Sunday, July 6, 2014

the latest assessment... (pm.06.jul.14)>

I was out of McLeod Ganj for 26 days, but it felt like about an hour.  Just arrived back here this morning, and have been spending this evening extensively digging through as much data as I can find, which is the first time I've been able to focus and concentrate on that since before I left.  Although it's been less than a month, we've obviously changed seasons during that period of time.

I'd like to again thank my neighbor, Tom, for keeping a close eye on the rain gauge while I was gone, and meticulously compiling the rainfall totals for the upper part of McLeod Ganj -- which is much more representative for McLeod, Bhagsu, Dharamkot and Naddi than the Dharamsala data which can usually be found on the IMD website.

Here's what we have thus far:

The JUNE total was 10.9" (27.7cm), which is actually a couple of inches above normal for the month -- thanks to the consistent heavy rains which occurred from the 25th through the 30th.

The JULY total has been a bit sluggish thus far.  There has been 3.49" (8.9cm) through this afternoon, which is only about half as much as we would expect by this stage of the month.

LOOKING AHEAD --  Although we've had official monsoon conditions declared for our area for nearly a week now, we're actually in a very weak phase of the monsoon at the moment.  There is plenty of latent moisture in place, but the upper-air pattern is basically dead and flat, providing little dynamic energy for widespread and long-lasting heavy rainfall.  There could be some fairly healthy downpours at any time of the day or night as we progress through this week, but right now it's looking like we may have to wait until next week for the right combination of atmospheric variables which could team up to produce any kind of truly impressive rainfall.  Stay tuned day-by-day as we keep an eye on all that.

With all this moisture in the area (generally 65-90% humidity throughout the day), our temperatures are being held down, compared to what we were dealing with just a couple of weeks ago.  Still, tonight's data points to a bit of a warm-up during the coming few days.

The CURRENT FORECAST will be back up and running later this evening, so check there for details.

AND OF COURSE... HAPPY 79TH BIRTHDAY TO HIS HOLINESS THE DALAI LAMA!