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Sunday, March 24, 2013

chilly and wet... (am.24.mar.13)>

*Update @ 2:45pm... Now 2.21" (5.6cm) of rain here at my location at the top of town.  Frequent thundershowers are still coming and going... but there are hints that things could be winding down by late afternoon.  Current temp: 50.7F (10.4C).

*Update @ 11:34am... That glimpse of sun was very short-lived, obviously.  It has been raining rather heavily with more thunder and some small hail again during the past half hour.  No signs of any definitive improvement in our near future.

*Update @ 10:42am... And now, a glimpse of sun.  I have 1.62" (4.1cm) in the rain gauge.  Current temp: 50.5F (10.3C).

*Update @ 10:18am... Sparks are flying out there at the moment.  Lots of intense cloud-to-ground lightning.  I had a couple of minutes of small hail shortly after the last report, and the rain has been moderate to heavy at times.  No chance to check the rain gauge, though.  Temps have cooled down again... currently 46.8F (8.2C).

*Update @ 9:38am... Our atmosphere is still very unstable as the center of the counter-clockwise circulation associated with this upper-level storm system approaches the Pak/Kashmir border.  Scattered thundershowers continue to develop along the southwest slopes of the mountains as moist air gets pulled northward into the much colder air aloft.  I have 1.39" (3.5cm) in my rain gauge since late last night.  Current temp: 50.4F (10.2C).

*Update @ 8:33am... Total rainfall here in the upper part of town has now reached 1.34" (3.4cm).  Current temp: 48.9F (9.4C).  Scattered thundershowers continue to develop and move northeastward.

Overnight low temp: 45.1F (7.3C)
Rainfall up to 6:30am: 1.21" (3.1cm)

What a night it has been!  The large area of rain and thundershowers developing southwest of us last evening continued to expand and intensify, with a bit of thunder and lightning arriving just before 10:30pm.  Then, we had an extended period of moderate to briefly heavy rainfall for most of the remainder of the night.  At sunrise this morning it is raining lightly, with cloudy skies and an unseasonably cold temp of 48.5F (9.2C).

The upper-level circulation responsible for this turn to wet and cold weather is squarely over northern Pakistan early this morning, and is expected to gradually weaken as it moves into western Kashmir by late tonight.  Right now we're actually on the back edge of last night's large area of rain, but there will likely be more development of showers and possibly some thunderstorms from eastern Pakistan into northwest India before this system is finished with its business.  We've already reached computer model projections for rainfall totals (3cm/1.2"), but it looks like we could pick up another 1-2cm (0.4-0.8") today into this evening.  So, even if we get some clearing at some point today, be aware of the potentential for more rain/thunder development.

These temperatures are way below normal for late March, but as soon as things dry out and we get a few hours of sunshine, we should see a decent rebound.  Still, the week ahead looks unsettled -- with occasional clouds competing with the sunshine, along with a chance of mainly mountain thundershower development during the afternoons.

The latest CURRENT FORECAST is available on the tab above.