Tuesday, November 27, 2012

storm drama ahead... (pm.27.nov.12)>

Tuesday's stats:

Early morning low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
Afternoon high temp: 57.6F (14.2C)
Rainfall: none

Other than just a couple of clouds during the late afternoon, we had a totally sunny Tuesday, with temperatures running just slightly (but almost imperceptibly) higher than the last few days.  Another very pleasant late November day if you were fortunate enough to be able to take advantage of the sun -- but quite chilly if you were confined to the shade.

The most interesting weather of this early winter season appears to be just ahead of us.  A rather vigorous upper-level storm system is moving from Iran into Afghanistan this evening, and will be sweeping across northern Pakistan and Himalayan north India during the next 48-60 hours or so.  Computer models are more consistent about significant precipitation this time around, thanks to some moisture from the Arabian Sea which is expected to be drawn into the mix.  We'll have to watch carefully how things come together, but it appears that we have a chance of receiving measurable rainfall here -- perhaps as early as Wednesday PM, until the wee hours of Friday morning.  Since we've had ZERO measurable rain for November 2012, anything in the rain gauge will be noteworthy!

Higher up in the mountains, it's looking more and more certain that this storm will deliver some locally heavy snowfall, generally above 10,000ft.  Rohtang Pass will be affected, as will all the other high passes in J&K and much of Himachal.  PLEASE CLOSELY FOLLOW WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS if you are considering venturing to high terrain from Wednesday afternoon through early Friday.  This is the kind of early winter situation that strands motorists and trekkers, and leads to fatalities in this part of the world.

Temperatures will dip again sometime on Wednesday night and Thursday, and are expected to be just slightly below normal as we make the transition into December...

TUESDAY NIGHT:
a few patches of high clouds increasing overnight.  not as cool.
low: 9C (48F)

WEDNESDAY:
a mix of sun and clouds, with a chance of a rain shower or two developing by late afternoon.  a bit milder.
high: 15C (59F)

WEDNESDAY NIGHT:
partly to mostly cloudy.  good chance of a few rain showers, and possibly a thundershower.
low: 8C (47F)

THURSDAY:
both clouds and some periods of sun at times.  good chance of a round or two of showers and/or thundershowers.  turning cooler again.
high: 13C (56F)

FRIDAY:
any showers ending before sunrise... then sunny to partly cloudy.  cool temps.
morning low: 7C (44F)
daytime high: 13C (56F)

SATURDAY:
a mix of sunshine and some clouds at times.
morning low: 7C (45F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)

SUNDAY:
partly sunny.  seasonably cool.
morning low: 8C (46F)
daytime high: 14C (57F)