the latest...

TOTAL RAINFALL yesterday afternoon/evening = 0.41" (1.0cm)

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

big changes ahead... (am.20.jan.15)>

Interesting looking at all the charts and data this morning, concerning our storm system which is still scheduled to move in for the latter half of the week.  One thing that stands out to me is the very slow movement of the system as a whole.  The upper-level low pressure center itself is swirling around in southcentral Iran, and has only inched eastward since last evening.  It's going to take all the way until Thursday night for what's left of that dynamic center to reach northern India.

In the meantime, there will be a gradual increase in the moisture content of the air mass, as the counter-clockwise circulation around this system draws moisture northeastward from the Arabian Sea.  As we know, deep moisture being pulled uphill, up against our steep elevation gradient here on the front slopes of the Dhauladhars can often lead to some fairly heavy precipitation totals.

It is now looking like the best chances of rain development may hold off until late on Wednesday, or even overnight... though one model is insisting on the first showers developing as early as noon on Wed.  Initially, it is likely that the snow line will remain well above us here in McLeod Ganj, but with persistent moderate to heavy precipitation lasting into Friday, the mid-levels of the atmosphere may eventually cool down enough to allow the rain to change to snow at our elevation.  There's plenty of time before that happens though...

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above for forecast details.