Monday, September 21, 2015

plenty to watch... (pm.21.sep.15)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 64.0F (17.8C)
High temp: 72.6F (22.6C)
Rainfall: none

A partly cloudy and pleasant evening is in progress, and it's been a day pretty much full of alternating sunshine and cloudiness, with not so much as a single drop of rain.  That makes five days in a row of just barely measurable rainfall -- though we've lost our reliably unlimited morning sunshine that we were enjoying until just recently.  Humidity today fluctuated between about 55 and 75%.

If you've been closely following weather events, you're probably wondering, "where is the rain??"  Well -- there is still a complex weather system coming together across northwest India, though it is taking longer than originally anticipated for all the ingredients to coalesce into something tangible.  A strong autumn-like upper-level disturbance is currently spinning just west of Kabul, Afghanistan, as a lower-level circulation containing abundant tropical moisture sits over extreme northwestern Gujarat.  These two features will slowly converge tomorrow (Tue) into Wednesday, with an outbreak of significant rain and thunderstorms still expected to occur across a large area of eastern Pakistan into northwest India.  The latest data would suggest our very best chance of moderate to heavy rainfall to occur between tomorrow afternoon and late Wednesday night -- and we'll keep an eye on that to see if there might be further delays.

A cooler and drier air mass will sweep in by Thursday, on the back side of this large weather system, which should move us a step closer to more fall-like conditions over the weekend into early next week.  That doesn't mean that the thundershower risk (mainly PM) will entirely disappear... but it should be another step along the path of transition.

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