Sunday, March 2, 2014

waiting for a break... (am.02.mar.14)>

LOSAR TASHI DELEK

*Update @ 9:58am... Looking brighter to the west and south now.  I've had another 0.24" (6mm) in the rain gauge since 7am.  Current temp is 39.6F (4.2C).

*Update @ 8:15am... Rainfall intensity has been on the increase again during the past 15-20 minutes, as the temperature hovers around 38.5F (3.6C).

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Things are really not looking much better at all out there this morning... at least not yet.  It is cloudy and 39.6F (4.2C) with some scattered light rain showers in the area at sunrise on this first morning of the Tibetan New Year.  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 37.6F (3.1C), and there has been another 0.27" (7mm) of rain since last evening's report.  That brings the total for this entire storm system (since Thursday afternoon) up to 2.57" (6.5cm), with the majority of that occurring since very early Saturday morning.  The humidity is currently 86%.

What's left of our upper-level circulation is now right on top of western Himachal Pradesh, and is weakening rapidly.  However, there is a lot of moisture that has been pulled up against the mountains during the past couple of days, and with very light winds in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere, it may have a hard time getting swept out of here.  All of the computer models are showing very little additional precipitation development today, but it would be very wise to keep the umbrella and rain gear handy in the event of a few more periods of rain showers.  There is some clearing not far to our west, and hopefully we can catch a bit of sun before the day is out.

Any improvements in our situation are likely to be temporary -- as the next upper-level disturbance is set to drop in from the west-northwest by Monday night.  It will again bring a good chance of some rain shower development through Tuesday and perhaps Wednesday as well, while keeping our temperatures from getting anywhere close to average for the early days of March.

There are some hopeful signs beginning to appear by the end of the week, though.  A weak but broad high pressure ridge should begin to build by Thursday, allowing a warmer air mass to nudge its way in our direction as the weekend approaches.  That's still a long way off...  but something brighter to look forward to.

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