Sunday, March 9, 2014

bracing for action... (am.09.mar.14)>

We have cloudy skies at sunrise on this Sunday morning, but temperatures are on the mild side.  My low temp here on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center has been 49.1F (9.5C), and it's 50.6F (10.3C) right now.  Humidity is still quite low, at 36%, and there has been no rain overnight.

This morning it is plain to see that some changes are already underway.  Since around midnight, we've started to come under the influence of a developing storm system which is going to radically alter our weather situation for the next few days.  A wave of upper-level energy is just clipping extreme northeastern Iran, and will settle across Afghanistan by tonight... forming into a potent low pressure circulation center, which will then ease eastward toward northern India between Monday and early Wednesday before dissipating.  There will be huge amounts of tropical moisture being sucked northward ahead of this system, and as it arrives at nearly the same time as the upper-level dynamic energy, we should see a tremendous amount of rain and thunderstorm action developing over Himalayan north India.

Apart from increasing moisture in the upper-levels, overall, our air mass is still quite dry.  But throughout the day into the evening, there will be an increasing chance of some shower and thundershower development -- with the best chances of some longer lasting and heavier rains between late tonight and Wednesday morning.  We could be in for some very strong and gusty winds during that period of time as well.  Temperatures should be generally milder with this system than we've experienced with the last few rounds of storminess, but there will still likely be some heavy snow up above Magic View to Triund.  I hope people are paying attention to the weather and don't get stuck somewhere up there.

Rapid improvement should get underway by late Wednesday, with a remarkable warming trend now appearing in the data for Thursday into Saturday.

Get the latest CURRENT FORECAST info on the tab above.