Wednesday, March 5, 2014

threats remain... (am.05.mar.14)>

Our sky remains cloudy at sunrise on this Wednesday morning, but there is no rain occurring right now, and I've had no rain at my location at all overnight.  The current temp is also the low -- 44.8F (7.1C), and the humidity is 49%.

A weak upper-level low pressure circulation is now centered over extreme northern Pakistan, and is expected to drift slowly eastward today as it gradually fizzles out and loses its identity in the upper flow.  As evidenced by the extensive cloudiness during the past 36 hours, there is a lot of mid- and high-level moisture associated with this system, but thus far there has been very little significant precipitation -- at least here at our elevation.  It seems there may have been more action in the higher mountains to our north and northeast.  We've still got to keep watch today, as a couple of the computer models are projecting some substantial shower and possibly thundershower development in our area during the next 12 hours or so.

A bit of a shift in the general pattern will get underway tonight, setting us up for some nicer conditions for the latter part of the week.  It's not going to become totally stable and sunny and quiet, but we should see more sunshine from tomorrow (Thu) into the weekend, with temperatures heading on an upward trend.  An isolated/random shower can't be ruled out during the afternoon hours on any given day, thanks to a lingering marginally unstable air mass.

There are now indications of yet another storm system developing across northern India early next week -- so don't get too excited about an end to this very active late winter and early spring season we've been stuck in...

CURRENT FORECAST specifics are on the tab at the top of the page.