Monday, March 17, 2014

storm threat... (pm.17.mar.14)>

*Update @ 8:59pm... We're in the midst of the typical kind of extreme turbulence that precedes the arrival of a strong upper-level disturbance here along the front slopes of the mountains.  There's still not been much rainfall to speak of, but with our air mass becoming more and more unstable tonight, I'll be surprised if we don't see some pretty major thunderstorm development before morning arrives.  The temp is now back up to 60F (15.6F), as much colder air begins to arrive in the layers of atmosphere above us.

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Monday's stats:

Low temp: 53.1F (11.7C) -- 5:05pm
High temp: 68.2F (20.1C) -- 10:50am
Rainfall: 0.03" (1mm)
updated @ 7:50pm

It's cloudy and breezy just after sunset this evening, with some rain showers scattered around the area.  There was a nice period of sunshine between 10:00 and 11:00am which allowed temperatures to briefly soar, otherwise clouds have been dominant today.  We've had occasionally gusty winds as well, with the first faint rumble of thunder and a couple of light rain showers materializing around 4:15pm.  Up to now, there's been very little in the rain gauge.

We've got an upper-level disturbance and circulation centered over extreme eastern Afghanistan this evening, which will move across the northern half of Pakistan overnight, and then across northern India on Tuesday.  There is a pool of much colder air in the upper-levels of the atmosphere associated with this system, and it's going to be interesting to see how it interacts with the relatively mild and moisture-laden air closer to the surface.  Thus far, none of the precipitation development has been particularly impressive, but that may change later tonight into Tuesday, as the main dynamic energy passes overhead.  I still think there's a good chance we'll have a period of strong thunderstorms before this system makes its exit.  Very gusty winds will also occur on occasion.

Rain chances should diminish significantly by tomorrow evening, setting us up for a return to quieter weather for most of the latter half of the week.  I'm concerned about our air mass remaining marginally unstable though -- due to some pockets of colder air lingering in the upper-levels.  That means we may have to watch for afternoon shower/thunder development over the mountains.

After our recent warm spell, temperatures are already dropping... and will be on the cool side as this system moves through.  Some recovery will occur starting on Wednesday, but it will probably stay on the cool side of March averages into the weekend and possibly beyond.

CURRENT FORECAST information can be found on the tab above.