shocking changes ahead... (pm.08.mar.14)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 46.8F (8.2C)

High temp: 58.1F (14.5C)

Precipitation: none

The most pleasant day of 2014 (without a doubt) is coming to an end with just a few patches of high clouds, mainly in the western sky.  We've had a lot of sunshine today, apart from occasional streaks of high clouds and a build-up of cumulus over the mountains during the afternoon.  My high temp in the upper part of town was the mildest of the year -- which met our expectations.  Even the instability factor didn't turn out to be a very big deal this afternoon, keeping showers from developing, and contributing to the kind of day that we really needed (and deserved).

This kind of nice weather makes it hard to accept the fact that things are going to be changing for the worse in the near future.  But that is indeed the case, as a very dynamic storm system starts to get organized to our northwest over central Asia.  A strong circulation is going to develop over northern Afghanistan by tomorrow night, as massive amounts of moisture from both the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal get pulled toward northwest India in advance of its arrival.  The data tonight is still looking very impressive, and quite ominous for us.

The chance of some scattered shower and thundershower activity will be on the increase tomorrow (Sunday), but the very best chance of some periods of heavy rain and strong thunderstorms appears to be between late tomorrow night and early Wednesday.  We will probably have several waves of rain and thunder during that period, which could deliver in excess of 5cm (2") -- and a couple of the computer models are hinting at much more than that.  The freezing level/snow line should remain well above us, and probably above Dharamkot and Naddi as well.  But of course that will have to be continually watched, once precipitation really gets going.

On the other side of all this, we should see clearing and some rapid warming by the latter part of next week.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.