Friday, February 7, 2014

some lingering risks... (pm.07.feb.14)>

*Update @ 8:43pm... There has been some thunder and lightning developing again tonight, along with some (so far) light rain showers.  A south-southeasterly wind here at the surface combined with westerly winds and much colder air aloft is keeping things very unstable here along the front slopes of the mountains.  Current temp is 42.6F (5.9C).  I still expect a significant drop in temps later tonight, and a lowering of the freezing level.

-----------------------------------------------------
Friday's stats:

Low temp: 39.7F (4.3C)
High temp: 45.9F (7.7C)
Rainfall since 7am: 0.50" (1.3cm)
24 hour rainfall: 2.70" (6.9cm)

It is mostly cloudy just after sunset this evening, and there are some scattered sprinkles and light rain showers around the area -- especially some new development due west of us.  We really haven't had much rain at all since about 10:00am when 13 hours of nearly continuous rainfall producing a mammoth total came to an end.  There were even a few brief glimpses of sun for a couple of hours either side of noon, before clouds thickened up and fog developed for awhile.  Temperatures have stayed unseasonably cold all day.

Although the heavier precipitation seems to be over, our atmosphere remains very disturbed, with a weak circulation and very cold air in the upper-levels.  At the same time, we still have a flow of milder and more moisture-laden air in the lower-levels.  This prevents me from feeling confident enough to take rain and/or snow out of the forecast for tonight into Saturday.  A couple of the computer models are still trying to squeeze out a couple of periods of measurable precipitation between now and tomorrow afternoon.  And -- we're also not totally out of the woods with regard to the risk of a period of snowfall during the next 18 hours or so, thanks to the frigid air aloft and lingering moisture.

Even though things will gradually calm down as we head into the new week, that very cold pool of air in the upper atmosphere is not really going anywhere.  That means we will be dealing with some afternoon instability producing some clouds at times, as temperatures stay in the well-below-normal range for what will be approaching the middle of February.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST specifics on the tab at the top of the page.