Thursday, February 20, 2014

alternating variables... (am.20.feb.14)>

It's partly cloudy at sunrise on this Friday morning, and I've recorded no precipitation overnight, along with a low temp of 43.2F (6.2C).  Humidity remains low, at 39%.

We're still in the midst of a moderately active upper-level pattern, as weak disturbances and circulations move from the west-southwest across northern India.  There is also a weak southeasterly flow at the lower levels, so we're continuing to see occasional cloudiness -- though there is not nearly enough moisture to aid in the development of any significant precipitation near us.  There could be an isolated/random light rain shower somewhere today, but I think the chance of that happening will be slightly better to our north and northeast in the higher elevations.  Hopefully we can get a few periods of nice sunshine as well.

A stronger storm system is waiting in the wings for the weekend, with the best chance of significant rain scheduled for Friday night into mid-day Sunday.  The upper-level system itself won't be all that dynamic, but there is going to be a moisture stream being drawn up from the south, and everything will be moving rather slowly.  Computer models are offering a wide range of solutions for precipitation amounts -- from less than 2cm (0.8") all the way up to 7cm (2.8") -- so we'll have to wait to see if there might be more agreement as tomorrow night gets closer.  At this point, it still looks like accumulating snow will remain above McLeod, but maybe not above parts of Dharamkot and Naddi.

Temperatures for the next five days, along with other CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.