Skies are partly cloudy at sunrise this morning and I'm recording a very mild temp of 49.6F (9.8C), after an overnight low of 47.8F (8.8C). Humidity is at 37%, and there has been no precipitation since last report.
There is a lot going on on the weather charts, not only for our immediate future, but for most of the coming week. The strong wave of upper-level energy we've been discussing for many days is now pivoting across northern Iran -- on its way to northern Pakistan by tomorrow night. At the same time, much colder air is filtering from central Asia into the western Himalayas, as some moisture starts to get pulled northward from the Arabian Sea. Already there is a lot of rain and snow breaking out over Afghanistan, but it will still be another 18 hours or more before we start to get much precipitation in our general area.
As this system comes together, I am still seeing a tendency for the majority of the precipitation development to occur in the higher elevations to our north -- while we remain on the very southern edge of it all. This morning's computer models are keeping roughly 2-3cm (0.8 - 1.2") as a projection for us between about 3:00am Monday morning and 9:00am Tuesday morning. There seems to be a shift to a slightly slower/later timeframe which could mean our best chances of rain would be late Monday and Monday night. I'll be keeping a close eye on that.
A very disturbed and unstable upper-level pattern will remain with us after the departure of this first system -- providing us with a chance of rain and/or snow almost every single day of the coming week. If clouds dominate, as they look like they will, our temperatures between Monday and Friday/Saturday will be much colder than we've enjoyed recently, and below normal for early February.
CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.
