Thursday, February 27, 2014

disturbed for the duration... (am.27.feb.14)>

*Update @ 3:49pm...  There is a heavy thundershower in progress, and it is producing a mix of rain, hail, and snow pellets here in the upper part of town.  The ground is turning white already.  The temp is 42.4F (5.8C) -- but the air in the layers just above us is obviously darn cold.

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There has been some thunder, along with a period of very gusty winds during the past couple of hours, but it is partly cloudy with nearly calm winds here at my location in the upper part of town as sunrise approaches.  Rainfall overnight didn't register a measurement in my rain gauge, so we'll call it a trace since last evening's report.  I've recorded an overnight low of 44.9F (7.2C), and the humidity is currently 47%.

The broad but rather disorganized area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is still anchored just to our west, and will be reinforced by another upper-level disturbance dropping in from the northwest tomorrow (Fri).  This whole system is going to move very little during the next three or four days, keeping things very unstable as we close down February and move into March.  In addition, there is an impressive amount of tropical moisture oozing northward, as a batch of colder air sinks southward.  This, in combination with the upper-level energy, is going to keep a good chance of several waves of rain showers and thunder in the forecast right through the weekend.  As I mentioned last night, this doesn't look like the kind of scenario for long-lasting persistent rainfall -- it should be more of the scattered, come-and-go variety.

Temperatures will bounce upward if we can manage to get a couple of hours of sunshine here and there, but any surface warming will just contribute to the unstable nature of this air mass, generating more showers/thundershowers.  Otherwise, expect temps to be much cooler than average for this time of the year.

There are signs of yet another increase in rain potential on Monday into Tuesday, so we've got little chance of any kind of long-term turn to dry, quiet and warm weather anytime soon...

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.