sun and stars... (pm.30.nov.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 51.6F (11.1C)
High temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
24 hr rainfall: none
Total November rainfall: 1.83" (4.6cm)

We have clear, starry skies after sunset this evening, at the end of another sunny day.  The month of November is closing down with nearly perfect weather conditions for this time of year, as humidity remains comfortably low, and temperatures stay a couple of degrees above normal for the season.  Abundant sunshine recently has all but erased the memory of the gloomy cloudiness we experienced for so much of October.  To top it off, the rain gauge has been in retirement now for 22 days in a row.

There is a weather system on the way, however.  A fairly energetic upper-level disturbance will drop in from the west-northwest, and swing across northern India on Monday into Tuesday morning.  A surge of cooler air will accompany it -- from the surface into the upper-levels of the atmosphere -- but there shouldn't be enough moisture to stir up more than just some occasional high cloudiness tomorrow (Sun) into Tuesday.  One computer model is showing some scattered light rain/snow showers over Jammu & Kashmir into parts of Himachal on Monday, but I really doubt we'll see any of that around here.

Looking further ahead, there is nothing even remotely resembling a significant storm system on the horizon -- all the way through the first week of December and beyond.  We should relish this, because it could end up being the longest stretch of dry and sunny weather of the entire year.

The CURRENT FORECAST specifics are on the tab above.

seasonal serenity... (pm.29.nov.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 50.9F (10.5C)
High temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
Rainfall: none

Well surprise, surprise... it is totally clear just after sunset this evening, the same scenario we've had for several days in a row now.  It has been another day of unlimited sunshine and bright blue skies, with temperatures remaining rather pleasant for this time of the year.  Humidity today was mainly in the 30-45% range.

A general west-to-east flow in the upper-atmosphere continues from the Middle East into the western and central Himalayas, with a few embedded weak disturbances, but no genuinely stormy weather anywhere to be found.  Our air mass over north India has been very stable for a long time now, and despite the ripples and wiggles aloft, we've been able to muster very little cloudiness, if any at all.  A slightly stronger disturbance will swing from northern Pakistan across Jammu & Kashmir between Sunday night and early Tuesday, but other than a potential increase in high clouds for a while during that time frame, there should be little impact for us.

The November/December transition will feature temperatures running a bit above normal for the season, but it looks like there will be some noticeable cooling on Monday and Tuesday, before temps moderate yet again toward the latter half of next week.

CURRENT FORECAST details and other info can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

more gorgeousness... (pm.28.nov.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 50.2F (10.1C)
High temp: 59.2F (15.1C)
Rainfall: none

As far as I am aware, it was 100% sunny today -- without even the smallest wisp of a high cloud or the tiniest trace of cumulus development over the mountains.  HAPPY THANKSGIVING to my American friends who either celebrated today here in India, are celebrating tonight, or will be celebrating as the day rolls around to your time zone.  It has certainly been a fine one here, with pleasant temps and comfortable humidity to go along with the sunshine.

Today was the 20th day in a row without rainfall here in McLeod Ganj, which is quite an accomplishment after the kind of monsoon and post-monsoon months that we had to endure this year.  We've also had more sun in the last 15-20 days than we were able to enjoy in the previous four or five months combined, I would venture to say.

There are some minor wiggles in the upper-level wind pattern which will be flowing across and over northern India during the coming several days, but nothing at all that suggests an end to this superb late autumn weather.  Sunshine will continue to dominate, but there could still be the occasional wave or two of thin, high clouds here and there.  Only minor temperature fluctuations have been observed recently, and it looks like we'll remain just slightly above seasonal averages as December arrives... with perhaps a bit of a drop next week.

The updated CURRENT FORECAST can be found on the tab above.

beautiful, but dull... (pm.27.nov.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 50.9F (10.5C)
High temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
Rainfall: none

The time of year when it is totally dark just after 6pm has arrived... and we have clear skies as the day shuts down.  It's been another sunny one, with only a few small patches of high clouds drifting through during the afternoon.  My high temp in the upper part of town was just a shade cooler today -- but still a bit above normal for late November.

There is still basically nothing happening in the weather department, as we remain locked in a pattern that is more uneventful than any we've experienced in many months, and perhaps for all of 2013.  Sunshine has been as reliable the last two and a half weeks as rain and fog are during August, with occasional high clouds or an isolated tiny cumulus cloud over the highest Dhauladhar peaks during the afternoon providing the only exceptions.  A general ridge of high pressure continues to dominate throughout all layers of the atmosphere, and that is keeping things very very stable.

Although there will be some minor temperature fluctuations during the next several days, along with a couple of weak upper-level disturbances stirring up a few high clouds at times, mostly sunny and pleasant late autumn/early winter conditions will remain the rule.  Still no hints of returning moisture or storminess on the horizon...

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.

fantastically stable... (pm.26.nov.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 51.1F (10.6C)
High temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is utterly and totally and absolutely clear just after sunset this evening, at the end of day which featured wall-to-wall sunshine.  I saw a couple of very tiny cumulus fragments struggling to develop over the mountain peaks during the mid-afternoon, but they didn't last very long.  Temperatures today were again very pleasant for the end of November, as humidity held mainly in the 35-50% range.

During most of the year, the weather in McLeod Ganj is fickle, changeable, erratic and sometimes bordering on unpredictable.  But -- during the past couple of weeks or more, we've been experiencing the opposite.  We've come under the influence of a very quiet and dry weather pattern throughout all layers of the atmosphere which is providing us with the most calm and serene stretch of weather conditions that we ever get around here.  The air mass is absolutely stable, there is hardly any moisture anywhere to be found, and only very minor upper-level disturbances have been coming anywhere near northern India recently.

No major jolts or shake-ups are appearing on the charts during the coming week to ten days or so (at least), which means sunshine punctuated by a few high clouds at times, relatively low humidity, and seasonable to slightly above average temperatures will all remain in the forecast.  We get to enjoy an extended 'breather' before the inevitable next batch of stormy weather decides to threaten...

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

same same... (pm.25.nov.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 51.6F (10.9C)
High temp: 60.4F (15.8C)
Rainfall: none

Clear skies prevail just after sunset on this Monday evening.  It has been a sunny day, with only a couple of short-lived cumulus clouds over the mountain peaks during the mid-afternoon, and very little if any high cloudiness.  Temperatures turned out to be a bit cooler than yesterday, but it was still above 60F at my location in the upper part of town, which is slightly above normal for the season.

We are firmly in the grip of a totally uneventful weather pattern here across the western Himalayan region and northwest India, with no significant changes expected during the coming week or more.  There will be occasional weak disturbances in the upper-level jet stream winds that could generate a period or two of mainly high clouds here and there, but moisture is so severely limited that rain chances will remain very close to zero.  This is definitely the driest and sunniest period of weather we've found ourselves in in many months, and it's certainly nice to have it.

There should be only minor temperature variations from day to day, as we remain on the high side of average for the final days of November.  As we've all figured out by now, it is plenty warm in the direct sun, but seasonably cool in the shade.  Without a significant storm system moving through, that should continue to be the case.

CURRENT FORECAST specifics can be found on the tab above.

warmest of the month... (pm.24.nov.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 53.8F (12.1C)
High temp: 63.5F (17.5C)
Rainfall: none

Today's temperatures -- both high and low -- were the warmest of November, and about 5F above normal for this time of year.  In fact, it felt a lot more like the tail-end of October.  Most of the high cloudiness occurred during the morning hours, but we've had another wave moving in from the west this evening.  Otherwise, the sun did a good job maintaining control for most of the day.

The general weather pattern won't be changing much over the course of the next several days.  A weakening high pressure ridge will remain over northwest India, while a weakening low pressure trough hangs to our west over Afghanistan into western Pakistan.  This is the time of year when a benign set-up like this is pretty much the norm -- offering very little chance of rain or stormy weather at all.

Occasional high clouds in the midst of sunshine, temperatures running at least a couple of degrees above normal for this time of year, and low humidity will be the factors in play as November comes to a close.  This is definitely the longest period of inactive weather we've had around here in many months...

Updated CURRENT FORECAST info can be found above.

15 days without rain... (am.24.nov.13)>

Some thin patches of high clouds are scattered across the area at sunrise this morning, but it is a beautiful start to the day nonetheless.  My temperature on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center is 54.5F (12.5C), which is extremely mild for the latter part of November.  Humidity is currently 40%.  We've now had 15 days in a row without so much as a drop of rain.

Varying degrees of high cloudiness has been moving across the area on fast upper-level winds throughout the night and early morning hours.  The storm system way off to our west that we've been watching the last few days is nearly stationary, just to the east of the Caspian Sea, and weakening rapidly.  The high pressure ridge locked in place over northwest India recently will break down only slightly over the next several days, which should keep our weather dry and rather mild for this time of year.  There will continue to be occasional waves of high clouds being carried along from west-to-east in the rapid upper flow, but our skies should still balance out mostly sunny.

No drama whatsoever is showing up on the weather charts all the way through the coming week, so November should end pretty much as it should -- boring.

Get the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.

nothing inclement... (pm.23.nov.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 52.0F (11.1C)

High temp: 61.0F (16.1C)

Rainfall: none

With no exaggeration, I have to say that this evening's sunset was one of the most stunning I have seen this year.  With the layer of high clouds to the west, and the inversion layer in the lowest levels and in the valleys, there were some spectacular colors for about 20 minutes or so -- red, purple, pink, orange, yellow, green, and every combination of the above.  We managed to hold on to a lot of sunshine today, despite the occasional waves of high cloudiness and some light haze mainly during the afternoon hours.  I recorded a high temp above 60F again, after a respite of a couple of days.

An intense upper-level circulation/disturbance remains well to our west, and has lifted northeast into western Turkmenistan since this morning.  We're on the outer fringes of this system, and that's why we've seen the high cloudiness drifting in from the west.  The high pressure ridge in place across northwest India is strong and stubborn, and will not allow that disturbance to get any closer to us than it is already... so it will weaken and die out altogether as it drifts north-northeastward during the next 24-36 hours or so.

Thanks to that high pressure ridge, our temperatures are running above normal for this time of year yet again -- and it looks like we'll stay generally on the mild side at least into the middle of next week.  The upper-level flow will start to flatten out, leaving us with an uneventful pattern which could take us all the way until the end of the month.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST specs on the tab above.

sun vs. high clouds... (am.23.nov.13)>

There are a few small patches of high clouds around, otherwise it is mostly clear at sunrise on this Saturday morning.  The current temp (and overnight low) is right around 52F (11C), which is on the mild side for the season.  Humidity is 51%.

Satellite pics this morning are looking ominous off to our west -- as a strong storm system centered in extreme northeastern Iran continues to spin around.  However, a healthy ridge of high pressure remains parked over much of Pakistan and the northwest third of India, so it still looks like that storm system will not be able to make much headway to the east.  Instead, it is forecast to lift north-northeastward and weaken during the next 48 hours.  We're going to get brushed with a few waves of high cloudiness over the weekend, but it looks like the chance of any significant precipitation will be very low.  I think there could be some random rain/snow showers up along the higher mountain peaks tomorrow (Sun), but that should be about it.

Temperatures remain a bit of a wild card during the next couple of days -- this air mass is warming up enough that we could see temperatures in the 60-64F (16-18C) range, as long as the sun cooperates.  The problem is, a few hours of high cloud cover could rob us of that unseasonable warmth.  Still, nothing particularly cold for this time of year should affect us over the course of the coming several days at least.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

inversion, high clouds, etc... (pm.22.nov.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 48.7F (9.3C)
High temp: 58.5F (14.7C)
Rainfall: none

It is hazy with a few thin patches of high clouds scattered around the area just after sunset this evening.  Although we could easily call it a 'mostly sunny' day, there was a period of fairly extensive high cloudiness for a couple of hours this morning, and the visibility was reduced due to haze for much of this afternoon into the evening.  Temperatures were slightly milder this afternoon than the last two days, while the humidity fluctuated rather dramatically -- from around 25% early this morning to just over 50% during the middle of the afternoon.

There is a lot of warming occurring in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere right now, as a strong ridge of high pressure pumps up across the northwest one-third of India.  With cooler air trapped in the lower levels, we're again seeing the effects of a temperature inversion, with that haze, smoke, and whatever other kinds of pollution unable to escape upward.  I think the warming will translate to our elevation and below as well over the course of the weekend -- through occasional waves of high cloudiness may hinder the sun's effect on the warming air mass.

The high clouds are associated with a strong storm system centered over northeastern Iran this evening.  This system won't ever make it here though, as it is forecast to lift northeastward and eventually northward as it weakens and blows itself out.  Our big challenge this weekend will be the anticipation of how extensive any cloudiness might be, and how that will affect our temps -- but rain and/or snow potential still looks very low anywhere in Himachal Pradesh.

Keep up with CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

ridges and troughs... (am.22.nov.13)>

We're starting to see some patches of high clouds develop and move in from the west early this morning, but the sun should be visible as it rises over the mountains shortly.  My temp is near 49F (9.5C) at the moment, and humidity is a low 28%.

The upper-air pattern has been fast-moving and very changeable recently, and will continue that way through the weekend.  Temperatures aloft are warming dramatically again, as a steep ridge of high pressure builds across northwest India.  At the same time, a rather strong storm system is swirling around the vicinity of the southern Caspian Sea, and will be easing its way east-northeastward during the next 48-72 hours.  This storm system looks like it will be unable to blast through the ridge of high pressure over northwest India, so it will be torn apart and flatten out as it moves into the western Himalayas.  That means some waves of high clouds are probably all we'll get out of this, and perhaps an isolated rain/snow shower in the higher elevations late Saturday or Sunday.

After a brief cooler spell, our temperatures should be on the rise again over the course of the weekend.  But -- in spite of a gradually warming air mass, we'll have to be aware of the effect of the high cloudiness.  If we have a period of thicker cloud cover during the maximum heating time of the day, then we won't reap the benefits.  

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

fluctuations... (pm.21.nov.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 49.8F (9.9C) -- at 7pm *updated
High temp: 57.7F (14.3C)
Rainfall: none

We have clear skies after sunset this evening, and it's noticeably cooler again.  Apart from some haze down in the valleys and a just a few cumulus clouds over the mountain peaks during the afternoon, it has been another decisively sunny day.  Classic late autumn in the Himalayas -- it feels very warm in the direct sunlight, but very cool in the shade.  Humidity has been in the 40-50% range today.

Cooler air flowing into north India in the wake of an upper-level disturbance swinging by to our north resulted in the lowest high temp I have recorded in the past nine days, though it's less than 5 degrees (f) cooler than our high temp of the month which occurred on Monday.  That disturbance is quickly moving off to the east, and will be replaced by a rather steep ridge of high pressure developing across our area tomorrow and Saturday.  We should have a very stable atmosphere along with a gradual increase in temperatures over the course of the weekend.

A rather strong storm system will ease its way from Iraq into western Pakistan by Saturday evening.  However, all of the computer model guidance shows this system weakening rapidly and falling apart as it approaches the western Himalayan region.  Right now it seems that any rain/snow will be unlikely, though an increase in high cloudiness may keep us from enjoying full sunshine over the weekend into early next week.

The CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab at the top of the page.

sunshine dominates... (am.21.nov.13)>

It's slightly cooler this morning than it has been the last few mornings -- around 51F (11C) at my location just below the mountaineering center.  There's still a subtle temperature inversion in place, which means nighttime/early morning temps are a couple of degrees cooler further downhill.  We're starting off with clear skies again, and should see lots of sunshine again today.

A very fast moving upper-level disturbance is pivoting into western China early this morning, as slightly cooler air throughout all layers of the atmosphere continues to filter southward in its wake.  'Slightly' is the operative word here, as we're not really going to be dropping even below normal for this stage of November.  Very quickly, a ridge of high pressure will develop over northern India tomorrow, triggering another warm-up which will occur as we head into the weekend.

This very progressive pattern will then deliver a disturbance riding in from the west -- but it's expected to flatten out and dissipate by late Sunday/Monday as it encounters the ridge of high pressure in place over north India.  I think we could see a couple of waves of mainly high cloudiness during the weekend into early next week, but it appears that rainfall will be unlikely.  The dry season is finally behaving like the dry season.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab above.

open skies... (pm.20.nov.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 51.6F (10.9C)
High temp: 61.0F (16.1C)
Rainfall: none

Today has turned out to be another day of nearly 100% sunny skies -- one of several we've been able to relish in the past week and a half.  I recorded a high temp above 60F for the fourth day in a row, though it did start to cool off during the afternoon.

We've just started to come under the influence of a glancing blow of slightly cooler air during the last few hours, thanks to a very fast-moving upper-level disturbance which is dropping into Jammu & Kashmir from the northwest this evening.  This system contains hardly any moisture at all, so we may not even see much cloudiness as it swings off to our northeast by tomorrow evening.  At any rate, temperatures are expected to be a few degrees cooler between tonight and Friday morning -- but still not particularly cold at all for this time of year.

By Friday, a new ridge of high pressure will form over northern India, allowing us to begin a fresh warm-up over the weekend.  At the same time, however, there will be a weak disturbance riding eastward on the jet stream winds, which may give us an increase in clouds.  Evidence of any kind of significant storm system has withered away with the latest runs of computer model data, so all in all, it looks like it will remain quiet and relatively mild as we head toward the end of the month.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

no major shake-ups... (am.20.nov.13)>

It is absolutely clear at dawn this morning.  My temperature here in the upper part of town is hovering around 52F (11C), and humidity is very low -- at 25%.

According to the record books, November balances out as the driest and sunniest month of the year on average, and things have certainly been falling in line with that during the past 10 days or so.  Yesterday we had a few hours of patchy high cloudiness draped across Himachal, otherwise sunshine has been the dominant force for most of this mid-month period.  

The upper-level disturbance and associated pool of colder air aloft that we've been talking about and watching for several days will swing across Jammu & Kashmir and Himachal later today and Thursday.  However, this feature looks very lackluster, and may do nothing more than deliver some random clouds and a brief brush with slightly cooler temperatures.  By Friday, the thermometer should start to tick upward again, keeping us a bit warmer than normal into the coming weekend.

There will be another ripple in the upper-air pattern moving across Pakistan and northwest India during the latter half of the weekend, with a mildly unstable pattern looking possible for a large part of next week.  Still, there is nothing resembling a significant storm system in sight, so this generally pleasant late autumn weather should stay with us for the most part.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST tab above for specifics.

brief cooling ahead... (pm.19.nov.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 53.6F (12.0C)
High temp: 61.5F (16.4C)
Rainfall: none

The sky is clear again this evening, after a day which featured sunshine and some fairly extensive patches of mid- and high-level clouds during the mid-morning into the mid-afternoon hours.  Those clouds kept temps from warming as much as expected -- but still, it was the third day in a row that I've recorded 60F or higher at my spot in the upper part of town.  So -- we remain on the plus side of average for this time of year.

That burst of high cloudiness today was evidence of some continued warming which is occurring in layers of the atmosphere just above us -- while cooler air remains trapped in the lower elevations below us.  This is a classic winter season inversion which actually delivers colder night-time temperatures further downhill than we're experiencing up here at the 5500-7000ft elevation.

An upper-level disturbance and associated batch of cooler air is still poised to swing across our area tomorrow (Wed) into Thursday.  Although there could be a few clouds accompanying this system, it will probably arrive and then depart virtually unnoticed -- apart from ushering in some slightly cooler air.  That brief cooling trend will then reverse itself as the weekend arrives, with temperatures rising a few degrees above normal yet again.  Looking further ahead, there is evidence of some potentially unsettled weather during the early part of next week, but a well organized storm system doesn't look likely at this point.

CURRENT FORECAST details for the next five days can be found on the tab above.

streak of glory... (pm.18.nov.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
High temp: 62.2 (16.8C)
Rainfall: none

A few high clouds started to appear on the western horizon just as the sun was setting this evening, otherwise it has been another bright and sunny day -- the ninth day in a row that can go down in the books as 'mostly sunny'.  As expected, today's temperatures were November's warmest, and the highest I've recorded at my location in the upper part of town since the 30th of October.  Humidity was in the 25-45% range.

This is the kind of weather we dream of during other times of year when it's either too hot, too cold, too rainy, or too cloudy.  November has certainly been performing up to expectations the last week or more -- and perhaps over-performing in the last couple of days since temperatures have warmed up so nicely.  The combination of a stable atmosphere and a very dry air mass has been our recipe for perfection.

I think we could still warm up another degree or two tomorrow (Tues), before an upper-level disturbance dropping in from the northwest provides us with a glancing blow of some slightly cooler air for a couple of days during the mid-week period.  This system will move in and out very quickly, however, which means temperatures will be on the rise again as the weekend arrives.  There is still a chance of some kind of storm system, or at least some unsettled weather early next week... but the extended data has been inconsistent thus far, and could flip-flop in either direction.  Stay tuned.

CURRENT FORECAST details, along with other info, can be found on tabs at the top of the page.

comfortably mild... (am.18.nov.13)>

It's another perfectly clear morning, and quite mild for this time of year with a sunrise temperature of 53.5F (11.9C).  Humidity is very  low -- at 25%.

I recorded a high temp in excess of 60F yesterday for the first time since November 2nd, and it looks likely that it will warm up even more today, taking us to to our highest temperatures since the last few days of October.  A ridge of high pressure in place across most of northern India is responsible for this fantastic mid-November weather pattern.  Apart from a stray patch of high clouds or some feeble cumulus build-up over the mountains during the afternoon, our skies should remain sunny and bright blue.

We still have to watch an upper-level disturbance accompanied by a batch of colder air which is going to swing in from the northwest during the mid-week period.  Right now it looks like the bulk of the effects of this system will remain to our north... but we could see a temporary dip in temperatures during the Wednesday-Thursday period.  Then, a resurgence of unseasonably warm air is back in the forecast for the coming weekend -- ahead of a potential storm system by late Sunday or Monday of next week.

The CURRENT FORECAST and other information can be found on tabs above.

cracking 60f... (pm.17.nov.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 52.3F (11.3C)
High temp: 61.2F (16.2C)
Rainfall: none

The sun is setting on yet another gorgeous November day -- and one that has featured the warmest temperatures in just over two weeks.  Other than a couple of fragments of cumulus clouds trying to develop over the mountain peaks during the mid-afternoon, we had sunny, blue skies all day.  Humidity was once again in the 30-40% range.

The mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere continue to warm up steadily, and we're finally feeling the effects of that here at our elevation, with both high and low temps UP a couple of degrees during the past 24 hours.  There's a bit of an inversion developing, however, which means that cooler air is now trapped in the lower elevations below us, as warming occurs higher up.  This kind of scenario is what delivers the miserable winter fog to the plains of north India by late December and January -- but right now the air mass is too dry for that to become a problem.  At any rate, it looks like our warming trend is not finished yet, as we could rise another couple of degrees (F) tomorrow into Tuesday.

A very progressive and potentially changeable pattern is showing up on the computer model data for the middle part of the week into the weekend.  It mostly centers around a fresh pool of cold air aloft which will be dropping southeastward by Wednesday, but which may not make it far enough south to have much of an effect on us.  That means temps may remain on the plus side of normal/average for much of the coming week.  The second feature to watch is a bit further away -- in the form of a potential storm system arriving exactly a week from now.  Lots of time to watch how that comes together.

CURRENT FORECAST details are available on the tab above.

pleasantly uneventful... (pm.16.nov.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
High temp: 59.4F (15.2C)
Rainfall: none

Today has been the mildest day since the 4th of November -- if only by a fraction of a degree.  Other than the expected high, thin cirrus clouds which hung around for a while this morning, we had tons of sun again, making it a full week of sunshine dominating dramatically over clouds.  Humidity was mainly in the 30-40% range all day.

We're in the midst of a very uneventful weather pattern, as a west-southwesterly flow in the upper-levels of the atmosphere continues from Arabia into the western and central Himalayan region.  Although there are a couple of weak disturbances drifting along in those upper-level winds, there's hardly any moisture to be found, and atmospheric temperature profiles are very stable.  This is how it should be this time of year, which is normally the time when storm systems are few and far between, and air masses tend to be rather stable and not prone to much drama.

I'm still waiting for the thermometer to surge upward a bit more aggressively, since warming in the mid- and upper-levels should eventually translate into some milder temps here at our elevation.  It's looking like tomorrow (Sun) into Tuesday will be the best opportunity for us to experience some above average temps for the season... and I am still very hopeful that we'll rise at least a couple of degrees above 60F before the next surge of cooler air begins to threaten during the middle of the coming week.

Check the tabs above for other info, along with CURRENT FORECAST details.

weekend warm-up... (am.16.nov.13)>

We have some streaks of high, thin cirrus clouds in the midst of sunny skies early on this Saturday morning.  I've recorded a low temp of 50.5F (10.3C) overnight, which is the mildest since the 5th of this month.  Humidity is hovering around 33%.

Steady warming is occurring in the middle and upper-levels of the atmosphere, as a west-southwesterly flow continues to develop across Pakistan and the northwest one-third of India.  There are also a couple of very weak disturbances embedded in that flow -- but with almost no moisture available and a generally stable atmospheric temperature profile, it looks like these occasional thin, high clouds are all we're going to come up with.  Temperatures should be on their way up to the warmest levels we've seen since the waning days of October... more than two weeks ago... especially tomorrow into Monday.  Should continue to be fantastic weather for hiking and trekking in the mountains, with good views all around.

A batch of colder air will be flirting with northern India by the middle of next week, but it remains to be seen whether it will come surging southward or not.  Even if it does, a turn back to unstable/wet weather appears unlikely during the coming week or more.

CURRENT FORECAST details and other info can be found on tabs above.

all that sun... (pm.15.nov.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 49.8F (9.9C)
High temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
Rainfall: none

We're wrapping up another day of nearly 100% sunny skies -- the second in a row.  And it's been the sixth consecutive day without mountain cloud development encroaching upon us and providing at least a degree of afternoon gloom.  I've said it before and I'll say it again -- this final transition into clear conditions and prolonged sunny and dry weather has occurred more than a month late this year.  

The last time I recorded a high temp of 60F or above was on the 2nd of this month, and I thought we might reach it again today.  That was not the case, however, despite the unlimited sunshine.  There is still a warming trend expected to get underway shortly, which should boost us above normal for mid-November, and deliver higher temps than we've seen since the end of October.  We can thank a west-southwesterly flow in the upper-atmosphere for that, which should continue to provide low humidity and plenty of sunshine interspersed with a couple of periods of high cloudiness over the weekend into early next week.

Jet stream winds are expected to turn back to the northwest by late Tuesday or Wednesday, delivering our next shot of cooler air.  Right now it appears that there is little chance of any significant moisture appearing in our part of the world, so the cooling trend during the middle of next week should occur unaccompanied by rainfall.

CURRENT FORECAST info can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

spectacular... (am.15.nov.13)>

The temperature is 50F (10C) at sunrise this morning, with a humidity reading of 24%.  We have totally clear skies to start our Friday.

Afternoon mountain cloudiness has been less and less pronounced since Sunday, and yesterday, there were barely the slightest microscopic fragments of cumulus desperately trying to develop over the highest Dhauladhar peaks.  That means we are finally getting the kind of widespread, long-lasting sunshine that we should have been seeing regularly more than a month ago.  The atmosphere is stable, the moisture content of the air is very low (humidity in the 15-40% range), and temperatures near normal for the middle of November.

We are on the brink of a warm-up, though, with temps expected to crack 60F (15.6C) for the first time since way back at the beginning of the month.  By Sunday and Monday we should be running a few degrees above average.  There will be a couple of very weak disturbances drifting through on west-southwesterly winds aloft -- and that could bring us a few periods of high cloudiness to punctuate the sunshine during the coming several days.  The next cool-down is on schedule for late Tuesday into Wednesday, but no significant rain/snow-makers are in sight.

Keep up with the CURRENT FORECAST, located on the tab above.

november perfection... (pm.14.nov.13)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 49.6F (9.8C)
High temp: 59.0F (15.0C)
Rainfall: none

There's still some yellow and orange in the western sky just after sunset this evening, at the end of a 100% sunny day.  I saw a couple of very short-lived fragments of cumulus clouds trying hard to develop over the highest Dhauladhar peaks around 2:30pm, otherwise there was unlimited deep blue and bright sunshine across our area today.  This kind of weather has been a long time coming and of course very late to arrive this year -- but better late than never, I guess.  We've now had five days in a row which I would call 'mostly sunny'.  On top of all that, humidity dipped to 16% at my location in the upper part of town late this morning -- by far the lowest of the season.

This fantastic mid-November weather should continue for the next several days at least.  Winds in the upper atmosphere are already swinging around to the west-southwest, which will allow a bubble of slightly warmer air to advance into much of northwest India as the weekend arrives.  There's also hardly any moisture to find, so cloud development should be very limited -- apart from some wisps and waves of thin high cloudiness which we might start to see eventually.

By late Tuesday or Wednesday, the next surge of cooler air is being hinted at by computer models, dropping in from the north and northwest.  Until that time, it looks like we will most likely be balancing out on the plus side of normal in the temperature department.

Keep track of CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

season's best... (pm.13.nov.13)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
High temp: 58.3F (14.6C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is totally clear just after sunset this evening.  I would venture to say that today has been the sunniest day since way back in April or May -- with only a feeble attempt at some cumulus development over the immediate Dhauladhar range between the late morning and mid-afternoon hours.  In fact, by 4:00pm, what few clouds there were had already mostly dissipated.  It has been a classic mid-November day... when it is pleasantly warm in the direct sun, but quite chilly in the shade.

That upper-level circulation over northwestern Kashmir had little effect on us today, though there was plenty of cloudiness and some scattered rain and snow showers for our neighbors to the north.  Our temperatures have been stuck in a slightly cooler than normal range the last several days, thanks to that system.  But -- as it weakens and moves out starting tomorrow, we'll be seeing more of a west-southwesterly flow develop across northern India which will kick-start a warming trend as the weekend arrives.  All indicators point to temperatures rising above normal for the season by Saturday, and lasting at least through the early part of next week.

We're also now tasting our most consistently dry air and lowest humidity of the season, and it seems there is little chance of any returning moisture or significant rain chances during the next week or more.  It's amazing that it has taken so long this year to get to the point of being able to say that with any degree of confidence.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

a few mountain clouds... (am.13.nov.13)>

It's just a hair below 50F (10C) at my spot on Tushita/Dharamkot Road below the mountaineering center early this morning as the sun peeks over the mountains.  We've maintained totally clear skies overnight, and humidity is near 40%.

The only issue on the weather charts continues to be a rather persistent upper-level circulation and pool of very cold air aloft which continues to spin over northern Pakistan into northwest portions of Kashmir.  It has been responsible for cloudiness and some areas of rain and snow showers well off to our northwest the last couple of days, and being close enough to that instability ourselves, we still have the potential for some cloud development over the Dhauladhars and perhaps a stray rain/snow shower in the higher elevations this afternoon.

By tomorrow (Thu), that feature will be pushed out -- replaced by a broad west-southwesterly flow in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere.  Temperatures remain slightly below normal for mid-November, but as this subtle pattern shift occurs, we should see a gradual warming trend kick in over the weekend into early next week -- taking us a few degrees above normal for the season.  Sunshine should be plentiful, with very little chance of any significant rainfall for a while.

Check the CURRENT FORECAST tab above for details.

generous sun... (pm.12nov.13)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 48.7F (9.3C)

High temp: 57.7F (14.3C)

Rainfall: none

We've just had one of the most clear and starkly beautiful sunsets of the season, after a day of mostly sunny skies with afternoon clouds remaining confined to the Dhauladhar range.  This morning's low temp was one of the coolest this season so far, but our afternoon high was only slightly below yesterday's -- which remains just a bit below normal for this time of the year.  Humidity was rather low, ranging from 33% to 42% today. 

There is a tightly packed upper-level circulation and associated pool of very cold air aloft just to our northwest over northern Pakistan.  It generated quite a bit of cloudiness over Jammu & Kashmir today, and could still threaten us with some PM cloud build-ups mainly over the mountains tomorrow (Wed).  Otherwise we are enveloped in a seasonably dry atmosphere, with low humidity and little chance of any measurable rainfall, which should last for at least the next several days.

As that upper-level system weakens and gets ejected to the northeast by early Thursday, we'll see a west-southwesterly flow take hold across most of northwest India.  That should allow our temperatures to moderate gradually as we head into the weekend and early next week.  It looks like we should have plenty of sunshine and some pleasantly mild temps to savor.

Details can be found on the CURRENT FORECAST tab above.

cool and crisp... (am.12.nov.13)>

It's perfectly clear at sunrise this morning, and I'm recording one of the lowest early AM humidity readings in months -- 34%.  The temperature is hovering right around 49F (9.5C).

A dry and cool flow of air is in control across northern India, while a very cold pool of air in the upper atmosphere sinks south-southeastward into Jammu & Kashmir.  This upper-level circulation could stir up some cloudiness over the mountains today into Wednesday, along with maybe a stray rain/snow shower somewhere in the higher elevations -- otherwise I think our air mass has dried out too much to get anything else going.

By late Wednesday and Thursday, the jet stream winds are going to tilt more toward a west-southwesterly direction, which should set the stage for a general warming trend as we finish off the week.  Right now it looks like we should be enjoying an extended period of calm, quiet and relatively mild weather as the latter half of November unfolds.

The CURRENT FORECAST on the tab above holds the details.

updating... (pm.11.nov.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 50.0F (10.0C)
High temp: 58.1F (14.5C)
Rainfall: none

The entire nature and character of our atmosphere has been through an overhaul during the past week or so, finally shoving us into the kind of scenario that is more typical for this time of year.  We've just had a beautiful sunset, with mostly clear skies and just a few patches of thin mid-level clouds.  Temperatures continue to run a bit below normal for this stage of November, but not by too much -- with sunshine trumping the clouds during the past two days.

Apart from the coolish temps, I think we've had more consistent sunshine yesterday (Sunday) and today than we've been able to scrounge up this entire post-monsoon autumn season.  The daily doses of thick cloud build-up over the mountains has been lacking all of a sudden... and that is thanks to consistently drier air flowing in from the north and west throughout all layers of the atmosphere, along with near total stability, for a change.  

It looks like we're in for some typically quiet November weather during the next week at least, with no significant storm systems or surges of moisture anywhere in sight.  I have a slight concern for a greater build-up of afternoon clouds tomorrow into Wednesday, due to a pool of very cold air in the upper-atmosphere sinking into the western Himalayas -- but I think it will remain dry and cool enough in the lower levels to prevent things from getting out of hand.

By the way, since I haven't posted in exactly a week, I wanted to let you know that our vigorous stormy period last Wednesday evening through early Friday morning brought 1.77" (4.5cm) to my rain gauge in the upper part of McLeod.  That's more than double the average total for the entire month of November... and of course it was plain to see that heavy snowfall occurred well below Triund.  I recorded a low temp of 39.7F (4.3C) early Friday morning during the rain, which was ridiculously cold for so early in the winter season.

Check the tab above for CURRENT FORECAST details.

on alert... (pm.04.nov.13)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 50.5F (10.3C)
High temp: 59.9F (15.5C)
Rainfall: none

Some big patches of high clouds have been spreading into the area from the west this afternoon and evening, but still, I would call it partly cloudy just after sunset.  Despite the high, thin cirrus clouds, hazy sunshine was the main player today, and kept things pleasant for the most part -- with temps still a bit below normal for early November.  Humidity remained mainly in the 40-55% range.

These high clouds are the harbinger of less pleasant things to come during the next several days.  A large area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere is now starting to come together over Afghanistan, and will strengthen as it moves slowly eastward to northern Pakistan during the next 36 hours or so.  Ahead of it, winds in the mid-levels and aloft will start to turn to the southwest, tapping into some moisture from the Arabian Sea.  These factors will set the stage for an early winter-type storm system for a wide area across the western Himalayan region.

Tomorrow (Tuesday) should still be OK for the most part, although we may start to see some shower development in the higher elevations.  The best chance of significant wet weather right now looks like it will be concentrated during the  late Wednesday/Thursday time frame -- when we could see some thunderstorms, very strong and gusty winds, along with tumbling temperatures which will probably take us to new lows for the season.  And I certainly hope the travel back and forth across the mountain passes has, or will have, come to an end -- since moderate to heavy snowfall and sub-freezing temps will be likely up there.  This scenario is abnormal for the first half of November... but then again... nearly everything weather-wise around here the last 5-6 months has been strange.

Check tabs above for the CURRENT FORECAST, along with other useful info.

an agreeable monday... (am.04.nov.13)>

Apart from a few patches of high cirrus clouds, we have clear skies just before sunrise on this Monday morning.  It's been a calm and quiet night -- after the Diwali fireworks bananza finally settled down -- with no rainfall.  I've recorded an overnight low temp of 50.5F (10.3C) which occurred right around 6:30am, and humidity has been hovering around 40-45%.

The atmosphere is in a state of flux again -- as it usually is -- with much warmer air now appearing in the upper levels, as a ridge of high pressure builds in.  There should be some warming in the lower levels during the next 24-36 hours as well, but the warming aloft should be more pronounced, which should provide us with a stable situation today and most of Tuesday.  That means we should see a good amount of sunshine, apart from some mainly high clouds floating in from the west on strong jet stream winds.

An unusually strong November storm system still looks likely for Himalayan north India for the latter half of the week.  A very dynamic upper-level low pressure circulation will be centered in northern Pakistan by Wednesday, but then is expected to be very slow to weaken and move out.  This should put us under the gun for increasing chances of rain and possibly a thunderstorm or two, along with gusty winds at times and falling temperatures.  RIght now it appears that the best rain potential will be on Wednesday and Thursday, but it looks like scattered showers could linger into the weekend as well.  It's going to be a dangerous wintry scenario in the higher elevations of Himachal.

CURRENT FORECAST details and other information can be found on tabs above.

stable in the near term... (pm.03.nov.13)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 50.4F (10.2C)
High temp: 58.6F (14.8C)
Rainfall: none

We have generally fair skies just after sunset this evening, though it is still hazy.  There was an attempt at some cloud build-up over the mountains during the mid-day, but apparently the atmosphere was stable enough today to keep that development from getting out of hand.  So -- this Diwali has been one of the sunnier days of the season.  However, temperatures today averaged out as the coolest of this autumn season, and for the first time, the high temp at my location didn't make it to 60F (15.6C), despite all the sunshine.  Humidity held in the 40-50% range for most of the day.

The upper levels of the atmosphere are right on the verge of some significant warming, which will last through most of Tuesday.  This should provide us with a stable atmosphere, as temperatures in the low levels actually warm up at a slower pace than what will be happening aloft.  Even though there's very little moisture available, we might actually have to watch out for thickening haze and/or even some areas of fog, as cooler air at the surface gets trapped below that warming in the upper levels.  Otherwise things look pretty good for tomorrow and most of Tuesday.

The main feature in the weather story for the coming week centers on a large and deep area of low pressure which is still forecast to develop in the upper-atmosphere over the western Himalayas by Tuesday night into Wednesday.  If this system truly materializes, it could provide us with a good portion of our average rainfall for the entire month of November (0.7"/1.7cm) during the latter half of this week.  Temperatures will also likely end up well below normal for the season, with significant snowfall across the mountains of Himachal.  Check back for updates as we get closer...

Keep track of CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab above.

good for celebrating... (am.03.nov.13)>

*Update @ 9:57am... There is zero cloud development as of now, so perhaps the sun will remain with us today (?)

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It is hazy, but sunny early on this Sunday morning of Diwali.  I've recorded a low temp of 50.4F (10.2C) here on Tushita Road in the upper part of town, and there has been no rainfall overnight.  Humidity is currently rather low -- at 48%.

The day is starting out beautiful enough, but despite the calm and quiet pattern over northern India, we'll have to be on guard again for some cloud development along the Dhauladhars by the noon hour which may eclipse the sun for a while this afternoon.  Otherwise a high pressure ridge in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere should keep things fairly stable during the first two or three days of this new week -- which should translate into a good amount of sun for us.  Temperatures are a shade below normal for the early part of November, but we should see a bit of a warm-up tomorrow (Mon) and Tuesday before a new storm system starts to affect us for the middle and latter parts of the week.

This morning's computer model output isn't looking quite as ominous for Wednesday and Thursday as previous runs of data were... but it still looks like a fairly deep low pressure area is going to be forming over the western Himalayas, providing us with another decent shot at some measurable rainfall, along with another drop in temperatures.  Heavy snow looks like a good bet for the higher mountains and passes -- so keep close tabs on forecast developments if that concerns you.

Have a safe and happy Diwali!

The CURRENT FORECAST and other info can be found on tabs above.

not exactly boring... (pm.02.nov.13)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 51.4F (10.8C) -- during shower just before 2pm
High temp: 61.3F (16.3C) -- just after 11am
Rainfall: 0.03" (1mm)

It is mostly clear just after dark this evening, after a rather strange day.  Although there was a good amount of sun, there was also a huge build-up of clouds over the mountains which ripened at the noon hour, producing a few brief periods of sprinkles and light rain showers up until nearly 3:00pm.  The low temp for the entire day actually occurred during one of those showery spells between 1:30 and 2:00pm, so the high temp (above) is a bit deceiving, since it occurred briefly during the late morning before much cooler air surged in.

The rain drops during the early afternoon were an unwelcome by-product of lingering instability which hung over the Dhauladhars for much of the day.  Infinitely maddening, since we have had such a hard time erasing that dynamic this year.  It seems we've barely had any respectable stretch of bright, dry and quiet autumn weather before traces of winter begin arriving.

Things look quiet for Diwali and the next two and a half days or so, as a weak high pressure ridge forms over northern India.  We should continue to see a decent amount of sun, but the threat of occasional cloudiness remains here along the mountain slopes.  Temperatures are a couple of degrees below normal for this time of year, and should moderate only slightly as we head through the first couple of days of the new week.

Then... a very unpleasant-looking weather pattern will be coming together by Tuesday night and Wednesday.  A deep area of low pressure in the upper atmosphere will be developing over northern Pakistan, and is forecast to linger across the western Himalayas throughout the latter half of next week.  It looks potentially wet for us -- especially Wednesday and Thursday -- and wintry and unseasonably cold in the mountains above.

CURRENT FORECAST info is available on the tab above.

seasonably cool... (am.02.nov.13)>

*Update @ 3:02pm... There have been a few sprinkles and light rain showers scattered around the area since just after noon.  Satellite pics show the obligatory band of cloudiness hugging the Dhauladhars.  I've had 0.03" (1mm) in my rain gauge, and though the sun is shining off and on, there are still a few sprinkles here in the upper part of town.  :-(

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Sunrise this morning looks very similar to sunset last evening -- with haze and some patchy clouds hovering around.  It has been a quiet night however, after two nights in a row of gusty winds and scattered light rain showers.  I've recorded no rainfall overnight, with just a trace in the past 24 hours.  Temperatures this morning are not quite as cool as I was expecting... my low temp of 51.6F (10.9C) has occurred just in the past half hour.  Humidity is 52%.

A generally uneventful weather pattern is setting up across northern India, and should remain with us for the next three or four days.  There is a flat west to east flow overhead in the mid-levels and up to the jet stream level of the atmosphere, with a weak high pressure ridge expected to develop during the early part of the new week.  That should keep things stable and quiet for us, with temperatures remaining near to slightly below normal for early November.  We should see a good amount of sunshine as well -- though it is still amazing that we've never broken through to a consistently sunny pattern this fall season so far.  Cloudiness along the Dhauladhars has been more stubborn than I can ever remember, but let's see what might happen this weekend.

The extended data for the middle of next week is still looking very interesting, with the development of an unusually strong storm system for this time of year expected by Tuesday night or early Wednesday across northern Pakistan and northwest India.  There's plenty of time to watch how it all comes together, so check back here for further updates during the coming few days.

CURRENT FORECAST details can be found on the tab at the top of the page.

temps dipping... (pm.01.nov.13)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 49.6F (9.8C)

High temp: 61.2F (16.2C)

Rainfall: 0.03" (1mm)

We have some haze and a few patchy clouds around the area this evening, as temperatures slide downward.  Showers never redeveloped down at our elevation today, after the couple of periods of thunder, gusty winds and light rain showers which occurred off and on between about 2:30 and 7:00am.  In fact, sunshine was in control for the majority of the day, which kept things relatively pleasant, despite the cooler air mass which continues to advance on us.

A couple of upper-level disturbances sliding east-southeastward through northern India the last 48 hours or so have only been able to muster up 0.12" (3mm) of rain at my location in the upper part of McLeod -- and all of that has occurred during the early morning hours.  There has also been some mainly pre-dawn gusty winds the last couple of days, as differing air masses battle it out here along the front slopes of the mountains.  I think our risk of showers has all but died out completely, as cooler, drier and more stable air continues to flow into Himachal Pradesh, and the upper-air circulations push off to the east.  This will leave us with the coolest temperatures of this autumn season over the weekend, but also low humidity readings, and a good amount of sunshine.

November is the driest month of the year on average here in the Dharamsala/McLeod area -- but it appears we may have a rather active weather pattern developing again by the middle of this coming week.  Right now computer models are forecasting significant rainfall for Wednesday and Thursday, along with plunging temperatures.  So -- we have more to watch during this first week of the new month.

Check the tabs above for your CURRENT FORECAST and other weather information.

november dawns... (am.01.nov.13)>

*Update @ 7:54am... Leftover clouds (and a few sprinkles here at my location) fizzled out rapidly as the sun came up, and now it is mostly clear.

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It is partly to mostly cloudy at sunrise on this first morning of November, with a couple of showers around the area.  We had thunder, very gusty winds, and some brief light showers very early this morning -- roughly between about 2:30 and 4:00am -- but my rain gauge is showing just 0.03" (1mm) overnight.  The low temp dipped to 49.6F (9.8C) at some point, which is the same as yesterday morning's low, but it has bounced back to 53F (11.7C) at the moment.  Humidity is rather low, at 48%.

Minor upper-level disturbances continue to glide across Himalayan north India on a fast-flowing jet stream pattern.  Things have gone pretty much according to plan so far -- there are rather strong dynamics associated with this series of disturbances/circulations, but very little moisture available.  That's why we haven't been able to come up with more than widely scattered light precipitation so far.  There's still a chance of something a little more significant developing today, but then I think this whole system will weaken and shift eastward by late tonight into early Saturday.  As that happens, we should see a further drop in temperatures, which will take us below normal for the beginning of November.

It's still looking very nice for most of the weekend into early next week as a weak ridge of high pressure aloft moves in over the top of a dry and stable air mass at the surface.  That should provide us with plenty of sunshine, with temps struggling back to the average for the season by Monday.  Then, there's a new disturbance on the horizon for the middle of next week that we'll have to start tracking...

Check the CURRENT FORECAST details on the tab at the top of the page.