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Sunday, October 17, 2010

sunday evening (17oct)>

it's mostly cloudy in mcleod ganj early this evening... with the sun trying to break through the haze and clouds.  i recorded a high temp of just 19.4C/67F today.

well... if you've been following along, you know that the forecast kind of blew up in our faces this morning.  we went from 100% sunshine to nearly 100% cloud cover in the space of an hour... and no one was more surprised than me!  it really looked like we were in for a repeat of saturday, with tons of sunshine, but my best guess is that we had a sudden increase in low-level moisture, combined with the development of a strong temperature inversion.  it is now unusually warm aloft, with some denser, cooler air at the surface (in fact, during the night-time, it has been cooler in dharamsala than in upper mcleod ganj!)... which has trapped the moisture in the lower levels.  hhmmm... that's why they say meteorology is an inexact science!

until we see otherwise, let's expect this mix of sun, clouds, haze and a bit of fog to continue as we head into the new week, with just a slight chance of any rainfall developing.  there will be a weak disturbance and a bit of instability around tomorrow and tuesday, giving us a slight chance of a thundershower... BUT... a more significant weather system is looming on the horizon.  a strong disturbance is forecast to begin affecting northern india on friday, with an increasing chance of some rain, along with a gradual turn to significantly cooler temps...

SUNDAY NIGHT: clouds, haze and fog this evening will give way to clear skies after sunset.
low: 16C (60F)

MONDAY: early morning sun, then becoming partly to mostly cloudy and hazy with a slight chance of a PM thundershower.
high: 20C (68F)

TUESDAY: partly sunny skies.  an isolated PM thundershower is possible.
high: 20C (68F)

WEDNESDAY: a mix of sun and clouds.
high: 21C (69F)

THURSDAY: partly sunny and breezy.
high: 21C (69F)

FRIDAY: mostly cloudy, breezy and cool, with an increasing chance of a few showers or thundershowers.
high: 19C (67F)