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Thursday, June 23, 2016

waning moisture for now... (pm.23.jun.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 63.7F (17.6C)

High temp: 80.1F (26.7C) -- updated
Rainfall: none

Today, the second full day of the official monsoon season of 2016, has been distinctive in two ways.  First, I recorded the warmest high temp since the 12th of June, which of course was eleven days ago.  And secondly, this is the first day without even a trace of rainfall since the 11th of June.  I guess we could add a third distinction, as the average humidity was lower than it's been since last Tuesday, the 14th, at 54%.  At the moment we have a broken layer of stratocumulus clouds blanketing the area.

All of the data, charts and models are showing a shockingly quiet and relatively stable pattern both tomorrow and Saturday, with the juiciest moisture remaining well to our south and southeast, and a general ridge of high pressure developing aloft.  Again, it's important to remember that our mysterious mountain micro-climate factors can kick in out of the blue on any given day and put all the computer model output to shame -- so keep that in mind -- but it does look like we could get another day or two without significant rainfall.

Surging moisture by Sunday into Sunday night will return us to monsoon conditions for at least the first half of next week, and possibly beyond.  Humidity will again push above 80%, there will likely be more episodes of fog, and the risk of moderate to heavy rain will be on the increase.  Normally the Indian Met Department waits too long to declare the official monsoon onset here in our area, but this year they may have jumped the gun just a bit.  What we are dealing with is still the extreme back-and-forth stuff of the pre-monsoon period.