the latest...

**We're still anticipating temps to nudge the 80ºF/27ºC mark here in the immediate McLeod Ganj area during the next couple of days...

Thursday, June 16, 2016

the transition continues... (pm.16.jun.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 59.7F (15.4C) -- at 6:20pm during rain
High temp: 77.9F (25.5C)
Rainfall: 1.61" (4.1cm) -- almost all between 4:55 and 6:40pm
*updated @ 7:50pm

Robust thundershowers are in progress right now, and have been occurring on and off since shortly before 5:00pm.  I haven't been able to get to the rain gauge yet, but will update later this evening with what should be a fairly hefty amount.  The day started off with a good dose of sunshine, but cloud development got going very early -- by mid-morning -- and kept the sun under cover for the majority of the rest of the day.  We got grazed by some light showers well before dawn, but then it wasn't until very late this afternoon that the real rain started up.  Humidity wasn't as high as it was yesterday, but still averaged very close to 70%.

All of the elements necessary to maintain pre-monsoon conditions are assembled now, and have been for the last couple of days or so.  It's a transition period we're in, as our air mass moves more and more toward a state of long-term saturation.  That means the humidity level will be up and down over the remainder of the month, but the general trend when it's all said and done will be upward.  As I've mentioned many times before, the monsoon season isn't only about rain -- and there is plenty of that-- it's about the moisture content of the atmosphere.  Obviously, saturation means 100% humidity, which means the particular parcel/layer of air holds all the water it can possibly hold.  Just because it's raining it doesn't mean that the humidity is 100% at our elevation -- but we know that it's 100% up higher in the atmosphere at the saturation level, which is where clouds have formed and precipitation has actually developed.  This is why the prevalence of fog is the tell-tale sign of saturation and near 100% humidity.  So much for the mini-meteorology lesson.

Models are hinting at a slightly less moisture-laden airmass between tomorrow and mid-day Sunday, with another surge of moisture heading our way by Sunday night into Monday, lasting into at least the middle of next week.  At this stage of the game, we can't really remove the moderate risk of thundershowers from the forecast on any given day, but rain chances will decrease a bit over the weekend -- for what it's worth.

Check tabs above for forecast details, monthly stats and monsoon progress.