the latest...

**We're still anticipating temps to nudge the 80ºF/27ºC mark here in the immediate McLeod Ganj area during the next couple of days...

Tuesday, April 19, 2016

precariously positioned... (pm.19.apr.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 55.8F (13.2C) -- updated
High temp: 75.7F (24.3C)
Rainfall: 0.20" (5mm) -- updated for thundershowers 10-11pm

It's partly cloudy this evening, but the southern fringes of a large area of thundershowers is visible to the north-northwest as it tracks across southern Kashmir and extreme northern Himachal.  We've managed to escape any precipitation here in our immediate area today, with quite a bit of back-and-forth between clouds and sun.  The high temp at my location in the upper part of town was the coolest since exactly one week ago, though we are still right in the normal range for this time of year.

Yes, we're still in a rather active weather pattern as that string of upper-level disturbances continues to move from west-southwest to east-northeast across Himalayan north India.  That's keeping us in a precarious position since the atmosphere remains marginally unstable over a wide area.  Models are showing smaller chances of rainfall both tomorrow (Wed) and Thursday, but a couple of isolated thundershowers are still not at all out of the question somewhere in our vicinity.  A more potent disturbance/circulation is scheduled for very late Thursday night through Friday night or early Saturday, and that could be our next chance of picking up some significant thunderstorms with gusty winds and the possibility of hail.  I'm pretty impressed with the amount of cold air aloft that will accompany this system, so we could have an interesting scenario shaping up.

A return to some semblance of stability will arrive on Sunday, with a stretch of quiet and pleasant late April weather appearing likely for several days thereafter.  It could be briefly chillier on Friday and Saturday, but temps should quickly rebound.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK has the forecast details.