significant storms absent... (pm.17.jan.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 45.2F (7.3C)
High temp: 51.9F (11.1C)
Precipitation: none

A waxing half moon is directly overhead at the moment -- with totally clear skies again this evening.  Trapped haze and smoggy air is visible down below us, but we are free and clear here in our winter paradise.  But it's been another day that has felt more like something around the first half of December, as opposed to the middle of January, with temperatures continuing to run a few degrees above normal.  There were a few cumulus clouds along the Dhauladhar range this afternoon, and of course the haziness down below, but here we had abundant sunshine.

A developing batch of energy and upper-level circulation is still scheduled to drop southeastward into northern India tomorrow (Mon), and then gradually shift to the east by Wednesday morning.  However, this current air mass is so dry that there is only a slight chance of some random light shower development somewhere around us between tomorrow evening and Tuesday evening.  It's dumbfounding that the only genuine storm system of any significance we've had this winter season was way back on the 10th-11th of December.  All other systems since then have failed to measure up to what we would normally expect by now.

Temperatures will drop a few degrees between tomorrow and Thursday morning, but will probably STILL be on the plus side of normal for the season.  Milder air will seep back in from the south-southwest by Thursday afternoon and last into the weekend.  Extended range models show an absolutely quiet pattern thereafter -- lasting all the way until perhaps the the last couple of days of the month.

I am on my way out of town and country tomorrow, so I'm sorry to say that the daily blogging and forecast updates will be coming to an end for a couple of months.  I've learned that it's impossible for me to stay on top of weather here in northern India when I am doing my thing back in the US, but I'll do my best to give a 'heads-up' if it looks like any kind of significant storm systems might be threatening.  Otherwise, the normal blogging routine should resume by the latter part of March.

the mildness... (pm.16.jan.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 43.9F (6.6C)
High temp: 53.2F (11.8C)
Precipitation: none

I'm pretty sure it's not possible to come up with a nicer mid-January evening here at our location on Earth than the one we are experiencing right now.  Our skies are perfectly clear at dusk, with not a breath of wind, and temperatures in the super-mild zone.  A dramatic inversion is visible down below us, as a shallow, cool air mass is trapped below relatively milder and very stable air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere.  Sunshine today was absolutely unlimited here at our elevation -- and that doesn't happen all that often.

It's looking like we'll have another fantastic day tomorrow (Sun), with a flat and featureless flow aloft at the jetstream level.  Temperatures could cool off just slightly, but whatever cooling might occur wouldn't be enough to bring us anywhere close to normal/average for this time of year.  It's still ridiculously mild.

Upper-level energy will dive southeastward into northern India on Monday, and will try to spin up some kind of weak low pressure circulation just to our east.  Right now it appears that precipitation chances will remain very small for us - though there is a mentionable risk of a period or two of light showers somewhere around the area between Monday night and Tuesday night.  But once again, we're not talking about a significant storm system.  There should be a downward trend in temps also starting on Monday and continuing through Wednesday.  BUT - we'll probably end the week with yet another subtle warm-up.

Check tabs at the top of the page for other local weather info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.

uneventful weekend... (pm.15.jan.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 41.6F (5.3C)
High temp: 51.3F (10.7C)
Precipitation: none

As the last bit of light fades in the western sky this evening, it's hazy, but there are no clouds to be found.  The sunshine did return in earnest today, though that haze was apparent at times, along with a minor build-up of clouds along the immediate vicinity of the mountains during the afternoon.  My early morning low temp was the coolest since last weekend, but by afternoon we'd warmed back into the range of well-above-normal for the middle of January.

The weather charts are showing a flat and uneventful west-to-east flow at the jetstream level, lasting all the way through the weekend.  At least at this point, there are no major areas of cloudiness upstream from us either, which would indicate that we may get away with a good amount of sunshine both tomorrow (Sat) and Sunday.  There are no significant air mass changes expected either, which should keep our temperatures running mild for the season.

Some kind of upper-level low pressure trough is forecast to develop over the western Himalayas on Monday into Tuesday, but precipitation development still looks like it will be hardly noticeable.  We could see a slight drop in temps in association with that system, but nothing dramatic.  January 2016 continues to act like it's in a coma.

Of course forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

january mediocrity... (pm.14.jan.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 43.2F (6.2C)
High temp: 48.6F (9.2C)
Precipitation: none

It's very hazy this evening after sunset, with a crescent moon visible through thin high clouds.  Sunshine was scarce today -- with the few fleeting glimpses happening early this morning, and then again for an hour or two around noon -- otherwise a mostly cloudy classification is the only way to go.  For that reason, temperatures were a bit cooler than expected, though it felt a lot cooler since basking in the sun was not really an option.

The center of circulation of this latest upper-level disturbance is just moving into northern Pakistan this evening, and has been running several hours ahead of schedule.  There has been a massive shield of mainly mid- and high cloudiness covering most of the western Himalayas and north India today, but once again, very little precipitation.  This winter air mass remains exceptionally dry, with only a few relatively light rain/snow showers occurring in the higher elevations.  We'll still include the risk of a rogue light shower somewhere in our vicinity tonight into early Friday, but as I've been saying, I'll be surprised if there is enough to even register a measurement here in McLeod.

We can probably look forward to a greater percentage of sunshine tomorrow (Fri), and if we're fortunate, into Saturday and Sunday as well.  That will of course make it feel much more pleasant, even if our temps only warm up a couple of degrees at most.  The next disturbance should pass through here early next week, but we're still dealing with a major lack of moisture -- and that should prevent much precipitation development.  Same story.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK -- with forecast specifics -- can be found on a tab at the top of the page.

wxgeek is bored... (pm.13.jan.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 42.9F (6.1C)
High temp: 50.9F (10.5C)
Precipitation: none

We have several different varieties of patchy cloudiness across the area early tonight -- and it's quite hazy as well.  I am not aware of even a single drop of rain since last report, though we did have mostly cloudy skies overnight, and then a fairly equal mix of clouds, sun and haze throughout the day.  Temperatures, as expected, were a degree or two cooler today.

I will be honest and say that I am running out of things to talk about lately... it seems to be the same-old-same-old day after day, as we continue to experience relatively dry and mild weather since just after Christmas.  Winter has been essentially a "no show" so far.

The only thing to talk about is the continuing parade of weak upper-level disturbances moving from west to east across the western Himalayas and extreme northern India.  These minor waves in the flow keep bringing us pulses of mainly high cloudiness in between periods of sun, and minor temperature fluctuations.  There's only been 0.40" (1.0cm) of precipitation during the month of January thus far, and if the computer model projections are correct, it's going to be hard to add much of substance to that total over the course of the coming week or more.  We'll get another slight chance of a random/isolated light shower tomorrow night (Thu) into early Friday, and maybe again sometime around Sunday or Monday... but that's it.  Temps should remain just on the plus-side of normal/average for the season.

Forecast specs can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab (above).

in need of something... (pm.12.jan.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 46.1F (7.8C)

High temp: 53.0F (11.7C)

Today's precipitation: none

January precipitation: 0.40" (1.0cm)

Winding back the calendar....

RAINFALL TOTALS FOR:

DECEMBER: 2.53" (6.4cm)

NOVEMBER: 0.91" (2.3cm)

OCTOBER: 1.79" (4.5cm)

So that's a grand total of 5.63" (14.3cm) since the 1st of October, nearly three and a half months ago.  That's about the amount of rain we average in just 4 DAYS during the middle of the monsoon season.  Kind of hard to comprehend.

A weak disturbance will move across Himalayan north India later tonight into Wednesday, with another upper-level feature scheduled to pass overhead on Friday into early Saturday - but neither of these look very promising in terms of bringing us some much-needed winter precipitation.

Take a look at THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK on a tab at the top of the page.

easy treatment... (pm.11.jan.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 45.9F (7.7C)
High temp: 53.9F (12.2C)
Precipitation: none

Scattered high clouds grace the sky on this Monday evening, here at the end of a day which featured almost equal parts sun and high cloudiness.  I was actually a bit surprised that there was so much of that thin cirrus moving through today -- which did manage to prevent our temps from rising quite as much as expected.  Still, we're running significantly milder than normal for this time of year.

There will be two upper-level disturbances moving across northern India during the remainder of this week, the first of which is now centered over extreme eastern Iran.  It will move slowly eastward during the next 36 hours, and be centered right on top of us on Wednesday morning.  Moisture is severely limited, and the dynamic energy isn't much to get excited about either -- so that means we'll most likely see only an increased amount of cloud cover mid-day tomorrow (Tue) through Wednesday, along with a risk of some random/isolated brief light rain showers here and there.  If we end up with anything even measurable, I'll be at least mildly surprised.

The second upper-level system will drift through on Friday into early Saturday, giving us a repeat of the above scenario.  Again, chances of significant precipitation will be small.  Slightly cooler air is still expected to ease in gradually during the latter part of the week, but as I've said over and over again -- we're still not talking about anything very cold at all, considering the fact that it's the bull's eye center of the winter season.

Check THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab (above) for forecast details.

mid-winter tranquility... (pm.10.jan.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 43.0F (6.1C)
High temp: 54.1F (12.3C)
Precipitation: none

The sky at dusk this evening is very colorful, with only a few scattered thin cirrus clouds overhead.  It's been an extremely nice mid-January day, with a healthy bump in temps over and above what we experienced on both Friday and Saturday... and more sunshine as well.  The few patches of high clouds were never enough to put up much of a challenge to the sun.

A short-lived ridge of high pressure will remain in control tomorrow (Mon), and that should deliver another day with a majority of sunshine, along with even another one or two degree rise in temperatures.  The rest of the week will be a little less settled, however, with two main disturbances scheduled to roll across the western Himalayas and northern India between Tuesday night and Friday night.  Both of these upper-level low pressure circulations still look to be weak, however, with a really pathetic supply of moisture available as well.  There will probably be a lot more mainly mid- and high cloudiness to deal with on Tuesday and Wednesday, and again on Friday, but at least as of right now, the chance of significant rain/snow in our general area appears to be small -- probably no more than perhaps some brief, isolated showers.

Temperature-wise, we'll be dropping a bit starting as early as Tuesday, but more likely by Friday into the weekend.  Even so, it's going to be just near or even slightly milder than normal/average for the middle of winter.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is available on a tab at the top of the page, and updated both morning and evening.

truly dull... (pm.09.jan.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 40.7F (4.8C)
High temp: 50.3F (10.2C)
Precipitation: none

Apart from some streaks of high cirrus clouds, our skies are crisp and mostly clear just after sunset this evening.  Today's high temp at my location in the upper part of town was the coolest since Christmas Day, in spite of the fact that we enjoyed a majority of sunshine.  It's still actually a couple of degrees milder than average/normal for this time of year.

Looking ahead to the next week to ten days or so -- things appear quite dull and boring, to be honest.  There are a few ripples of energy and upper-level disturbances forecast to move across northern India, but there is no indication (as of now) of any kind of significant moisture tap with any of these weak systems, and that's going to keep precipitation development minimal.  It does look like our temps will average out cooler than we've seen during the first part of this month, though a drop to consistently normal to below normal temps does not appear likely.

The best chance of picking up some random light shower action would be on Wednesday and Friday, but even then there's nothing impressive at all to look forward to.  If you like calm and quiet and uneventful weather, congratulations.  But if you'd like to see some kind of authentic January winter thrills, I'm sure you are disappointed (as am I)...

Get a look at the local forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.  And -- explore the rest of the blog for lots of other weather info for McLeod.

brief excitement now over... (pm.08.jan.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 38.5F (3.6C)
High temp: 50.8F (10.4C)
Precipitation since midnight: 0.30" (8mm) -- rain and melted hail/sleet
24 hour precipitation: 0.31" (8mm)

There are some clouds lingering mainly right along the mountains this evening as darkness settles in, otherwise our skies are mainly clear to the south.  You can see from the precipitation stats that we ended up with a respectable amount of rain, small hail and a bit of sleet during the past 24 hours -- nearly all of that happening during a couple of periods of thundershowers this morning.  One round occurred right around 8:00am, and then the next more intense round (with the small hail and sleet) hit us between 10:30 and 11:00am.  Thereafter, there were only a couple of very brief episodes of sprinkles and very light showers randomly until about 2:30 or 3:00pm.  That chilly low temp of 38.5F (3.6C) occurred during the late morning thunder/rain/hail episode.

The freezing level has remained quite high, and you can see by glancing up-mountain that the minor coating of white (mix of snow, sleet and hail) is just barely below Triund.

What's left of the upper-level disturbance responsible for today's inclemency has now rolled into western Tibet, and already a weak ridge of high pressure is trying to nudge its way into northwest India.  A shallow cooler air mass is in place, however, and will give us a colder night than we've experienced since Christmas.  This shot of cooler air isn't going to last very long, it seems, as milder air will be flowing back northward as early as tomorrow (Sat), and especially on Sunday and Monday.  A ripple of energy aloft will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday, putting a stop to the warming trend, with another risk of a period or two of mainly light showers toward the end of next week.

It was nice to get a little weather excitement today, but it's still truly amateur hour as far as normal January conditions are concerned...  Check out THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab for forecast specifics.

minor system zipping by... (pm.07.jan.16)>

Thursday's stats:

Low temp: 44.6F (7.0C) -- at 8:45pm, updated
High temp: 53.3F (11.8C)
Precipitation: 0.01" (less than 1mm) -- updated, through midnight

Today's high temp at my location in the upper part of town was the coolest I've recorded since Christmas Day, nearly two weeks ago.  That almost sounds like some kind of joke, considering the fact that we're still running several degrees above normal for this time of year.  There was actually very little movement on the thermometer today, thanks to a flow of slightly cooler air coming in from the north-northwest, combined with a predominance of cloudiness once again.  We did get some periods of sunshine until the early afternoon, but like yesterday, the clouds took over during the mid- to late afternoon.

An upper-level circulation center moving into northern Afghanistan right now will be our main weather-maker during the next 24-36 hours.  It's carrying a fairly good dynamic punch, as well as the coldest batch of air we've seen since the two weeks leading up to Christmas.  The moisture supply isn't very impressive at all, but all of the computer models are showing at least a swath of light precipitation breaking out across Jammu & Kashmir and parts of Himachal Pradesh tonight through Friday.  As colder air filters in, any rain showers will become mixed with and then change to snow -- although at this point I'm fairly confident that the turn to snow will remain well above McLeod.  At any rate, we could be looking at a couple of inches of whiteness on the hills and peaks above town by tomorrow evening.

This system should very quickly clear out of here by Saturday morning, leaving us with a calm and quiet weekend -- though temperatures will start out quite cold at sunrise on Saturday.  A new batch of milder air is on the way quickly, however, taking temps upward once again during the first few days of next week.  Maybe another shower chance by Wednesday...

You can get all the local forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

temps trending downward... (pm.06.jan.16)>

Wednesday's stats:

Low temp: 48.2F (9.0C)
High temp: 54.0F (12.2C)
Precipitation: none

We have a fairly consistent layer of mid-level cloudiness blanketing the area at dusk this evening, at the end of a day tilting in favor of clouds over sun.  Yes, we did have some off-and-on sunshine from the morning into the early afternoon, but we'd have to call it mostly cloudy after about 1:30pm.  Although my high temp on Tushita Road just below the mountaineering center was a bit cooler than yesterday's, we're still dealing with temperatures quite a bit above normal for January.  It's kinda surreal.

A healthy jetstream is carrying numerous weak disturbances into and across the western Himalayan region, and that is going to remain the dominant weather pattern into the first half of the weekend.  Moisture is severely lacking, but there could be enough of it swept into the circulation of one or two of these disturbances to give us a few scattered rain showers (with snow showers higher up) during the next 48-60 hours or so.  It's still looking like the best chance of picking up some minor amounts of measurable precipitation would occur from tomorrow (Thu) night into very early Saturday morning.  But the key word here is LIGHT amounts.  Earlier this week we had been talking about the potential for a more significant storm system, but at least as of now, it doesn't look like that's going to pan out at all.  Temperatures have already started their downward trend, and that should continue into Saturday -- though we still probably won't dip below where we should be for this time of year.

Already another warming trend is showing up on the charts starting on Sunday, and continuing through the first half of next week.  Where is winter?

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

not so winter-like... (pm.05.jan.16)>

Tuesday's stats:

Low temp: 44.8F (7.1C)
High temp: 56.0F (13.3C)
24 hour rainfall: 0.09" (2mm)

The last bit of light is fading in the western sky, and we have a few dissipating cumulus clouds along the mountains, and a scattering of high clouds elsewhere.  Our overnight low temperature was a bit cooler than we've seen in the last ten days or so, but our high temp was pretty close to what we've been experiencing throughout this warmer-than-average stretch since the day after Christmas.  The bigger news is that there was finally some measurable rain in the gauge overnight, along with a generous dusting of snow along the Dhauladhar range and even some of the lower foothills -- all well above us, of course.

The upper-level disturbance responsible for that light precipitation has now moved off to the east, leaving us with a very rapid flow at the jetstream level that remains full of weak wiggles and ripples of energy.  That should keep us alternating between sunshine and periods of mainly high clouds during the next couple of days, though rain/snow chances will be very small... until Friday.  At that time, a disturbance dropping in from the west-northwest will once again increase our risk of some scattered showers of rain (here) and snow (up above) -- though the data coming out during the past 24 hours or so indicates that precipitation amounts will be very much on the light side.  Again, we will keep watch in case there are changes in the scenario.

Temperatures should be trending downward, effective immediately, but amazingly, it's still looking relatively mild for January.  It's hard to believe we are entering the very heart of the winter season, and still enjoying this kind of weather.  We may have a brief taste of cold temps Friday into Sunday morning, but then another push of mild air seems to be on the way early next week.

You can find all the forecast details on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above.

just a few raindrops... (pm.04.jan.16)>

Monday's stats:

Low temp: 49.5F (9.7C)
High temp: 54.4F (12.4C)
Precipitation: trace

It's overcast just after sunset this evening, but there is no rain at the moment.  We have had a few brief periods of very light showers since just before 1:00pm -- not amounting to much more than sprinkles, really, with not enough to measure in my rain gauge in the upper part of town.  Although there were some very brief glimpses of dim sunshine, it's been mostly cloudy all day.  Temperatures remain mild for the season, but my high temp was the second-coolest since the day after Christmas.

An upper-level disturbance is moving into northern Pakistan this evening, and has managed to draw a bit of moisture from the Arabian Sea northward ahead of it.  This has led to a lot of cloud development across the western Himalayan region today, and even some pockets of precipitation -- most concentrated in the higher elevations, as we've been expecting.  These brief light sprinkles/showers in McLeod have provided us with the first precipitation in more than three weeks, which we need.  Unfortunately, it's looking like our risk of any really substantial rainfall is slim, though there will be some decent snowfall up along the Dhauladhar range tonight into tomorrow (Tue) morning.

The shower risk will diminish considerably by mid-day on Tuesday, but our temps will be a few degrees cooler in the wake of this system.  It's still not looking very cold at all for early January (the middle of the winter season), but at least we'll be closer to normal.

This evening's data is suddenly looking very bland and lackluster for the weekend, whereas before, there had been strong suggestions of a potentially potent winter storm.  It is looking quite cold by Friday into Saturday, but the rain/snow outlook has diminished. Of course we'll have to watch each and every new set of data to see if there are anymore fluctuations in the model projections.

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK is updated at least twice daily... you can find that on a tab at the top of the page.

a more active future... (pm.03.jan.16)>

Sunday's stats:

Low temp: 46.6F (8.1C)
High temp: 56.9F (13.8C)
Precipitation: none

There are only a few wisps of high, thin cirrus clouds out there this evening, but for the most part we have a clear sky.  Today was again a mostly sunny one, apart from those occasional patches of thin cirrus -- and it was another mild one, as temps remained significantly above normal for early January.  AND, it's now been three full weeks without so much as a trace of any kind of precipitation.

A disturbance is on approach, however, which is going to increase the potential for some rain and snow showers across Jammu & Kashmir and at least the northeastern half of Himachal Pradesh during the coming 36 hours or so.  As I've been saying, we find ourselves on the very southwestern fringe of the probable area of precipitation development -- with better chances in ranges north and east of the Dhauladhars.  Still, lets watch and see if we might pick up a little something in the rain gauge between tomorrow (Mon) mid-day and early Tuesday morning.  It's looking like our temps will dip a few degrees as this disturbance moves through as well.

We should have a lull in the action during the mid-week period, but models are now struggling to resolve a complex upper-level pattern setting up as the weekend comes into view.  Today's data is looking much more aggressive with regard to precipitation development across a wider part of north-northwest India, and if temperature profiles turn out to be true, we could see a relatively low snow line as well.  Yes, it will be interesting to watch how the Friday/Saturday period evolves...

THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK contains forecast details -- on a tab at the top of the page.

twenty dry days... (pm.02.jan.16)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 46.9F (8.3C)

High temp: 54.2F (12.3C)

Precipitation: none

There are only some minor traces of high clouds visible as the western sky darkens this evening, otherwise we'd have to call it mostly clear.  Today was the 20th day in a row without a drop of rain -- or any other kind of precipitation for that matter.  Although we're now two days into 2016, that 20-day dry streak is the longest of all the past year.  Once again we saw a predominance of sunshine today, with only a few streaks of high clouds from time to time.  Temperatures were just a little cooler, but are still running well above normal for early January.

Finally there are a few things on the weather charts that could threaten to put an end to this extended period of bone-dry conditions.  But even so, we're not talking about a major storm system here in our immediate area.  There will be a noteworthy upper-level disturbance moving across the western Himalayan region on Monday into Tuesday, which will draw a moderate amount of moisture into its circulation as it passes.  However, right now all of the computer model data is showing the main outbreak of precipitation occurring just to our north and northeast, in the higher elevations.  We could be literally right on the edge of rain/snow development here along the front slopes of the Dhauladhars -- so we have to include that risk of precipitation in the forecast between Monday and mid-day Tuesday.

Then on Friday, there is another system predicted by the models to be pushing across north India.  This one will bring colder air with it, but still not a super great chance of rain/snow for us.  The scenario changes from one set of data to the next, though, so stay tuned as we keep track of developments...

Get all of the local forecast specifics on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab above... also, this would be good time to review the LOCAL TEMPS tab, for an understanding of temperature variations due to elevation and exposure in our area, especially during winter.

new year, same weather... (pm.01.jan.16)>

Friday's stats:

Low temp: 48.9F (9.4C)
High temp: 57.4F (14.1C)
Precipitation: none

*HAPPY 2016*

The first evening of the new year isn't looking a lot different than the last evening of the old one.  It's pleasantly mild for the season, with scattered patches of mainly high clouds during this hour after sunset.  Today was pretty much equal parts sunshine and high clouds, with temperatures remaining well above normal -- it's now been a full week that we've been basking in this relatively mild weather.  Humidity is low.

As we move into what is climatologically the coldest several weeks of the year, we are certainly lacking much evidence of that cold air.  And we're also lacking evidence or indication of any kind of particularly strong winter storm system to deal with over the course of the coming week to ten days -- at least.  The weekend should be quiet, with more alternations between sun and mainly high clouds, as temps remain mild.  On Monday, however we'll start to taste the effects of a moderately well-organized weather system which will be moving in from the west, giving us a better chance of some scattered rain showers somewhere in our general vicinity on both Monday and Tuesday.  Right now, all of the model data is keeping the vast majority of the precipitation development happening in the higher elevations to our north and east (as has been the case with nearly every disturbance recently), but there's at least enough of a risk of some shower action nearby that we have to include it in the forecast.

Temperatures will probably not cool off all that much as this system swings across -- but we may drop down a bit closer to normal for early January.  The next chance of some light precipitation shows up on the weather charts around Friday of next week.

Check tabs at the top of the home page for other info, including THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK.