Friday, July 19, 2013

rain risk rising... (am.19.jul.13)>

*Update @ 1:03pm...  I've had a report of 1.5" (3.8cm) of rain near Norbulingkha last evening, as we were getting a healthy downpour in McLeod, but only a light shower up at my place on Tushita Road.  Have heard others say there was heavy rain in Dharamsala at that same time.  Very hit-and-miss indeed!  Now, up to the present -- I've measured 0.35" (9mm) of rain since about 11:15 this morning, and it is currently raining lightly with some faint rumbles of thunder as well.

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It's gloomy and dreary early this morning with clouds and areas of fog, but I've recorded no rainfall overnight, and just 0.08" (2mm) in the past 24 hours.  As I mentioned last night, it seemed like more than that in the center of McLeod around 630-645pm, but when I checked my rain gauge, there wasn't much there.  Just evidence that there can be a lot of rainfall variability around the area due to the hit-and-miss nature of these showers.

The temperature is 67.5F (19.7C), with 95% humidity as of 6:45am.

The evidence I'm seeing this morning points to an increasing chance of more substantial rainfall as we head into the weekend.  The flow in the upper atmosphere is almost non-existent, but at the lower and mid-levels, more and more moisture is being transported northwestward into Himachal and Punjab.  WIth that very light flow aloft, any large areas of rain that develop along the leading edge of the mountains will move very slowly, and could hang around long enough to produce some sizable rain amounts.  Our rain has been generally light since the nearly 4" (10cm) we received on Monday and Tuesday, but it looks like we are due for a few inches over the weekend -- I'll be quite surprised if it doesn't materialize.

If long-lasting heavy rain develops, be aware of the potential for localized flooding due to the overloaded nullahs, gullies and drainage systems.

The CURRENT FORECAST is always available at the tab at the top of the page, and I've also started another page (tab at top), MONSOON 2013 RAINFALL, to keep a running total that you can check at any time.