Monday, July 22, 2013

moderate phase... (am.22.jul.13)>

There have been some light  rain showers during the pre-dawn hours scattered around the area -- but I've got just 0.10" (3mm) in my rain gauge.  At sunrise, it's mostly cloudy with some patchy fog.  My temperature is 68.1F (20.1C) and the humidity is 93%.

Total rainfall over the weekend between Friday and Sunday was 3.76" (9.6cm) at my location up on Tushita Road -- but I know it was more in the 6-7" (15-18cm) range in some areas below McLeod Ganj.  As we move through the new week, it looks like we're going to be in a rather moderate phase of monsoon conditions -- not too weak, but not particularly strong either. There is plenty of moisture around, and there are also plenty of weak ripples and disturbances drifting through in the upper-levels of the atmosphere.  There are also going to be a few peeks of sunshine here and there to heat up the surface layer and create some marginal instability.

All of those meteorological factors point to the likelihood of occasional showers on any given day this week, a few of which could produce locally heavy amounts of rain.  It is looking like a bit of a hit-and-miss pattern again, which means there could be great variability according to elevation and location.  There are hints of a more substantial surge of heavy rain-producing tropical moisture on the way for the end of the week, so that will be something else to keep our eyes on.

Your CURRENT FORECAST is always available on the tab above.